Security Guarantees for Ukraine Amidst Russian Aggression

Following talks in Washington, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was seen with US and European leaders, with announcements of "security guarantees" emerging. The discussions focused on preventing future Russian attacks. Western leaders pledged military assistance to protect any peace agreement. While some, like US President Donald Trump, mentioned "Article 5-like" protections, he ruled out deploying US troops, suggesting "air support" and emphasizing the EU's role as the primary defense.

Questions have arisen regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of these security guarantees in deterring Russia. One of Zelenskyy's conditions for a peace deal involves Western military aid, including weapons, training, and troop deployments to bolster Ukraine's defenses. European allies are exploring the establishment of a force to support a peace agreement, with a coalition of 30 countries expressing support.

However, Russia has consistently rejected the deployment of NATO troops. Experts like Stephan Fruehling from the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre have raised concerns about the practical implications of these guarantees. He suggests that commitments would require backing from Western forces in Ukraine, but acknowledges limitations, particularly without a strong US presence.

The US has indicated that Europe would provide the majority of security support for Ukraine, with the US coordinating its efforts. While the US president has ruled out deploying American troops, he has hinted at potential US military involvement, such as providing air support. This could involve various options, including air defense systems, enforcing a no-fly zone, or assisting with air policing.

However, experts like Professor Fruehling believe that air policing would be largely symbolic, and that a commitment to a defense mission is what Ukraine truly needs. Matthew Savill from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) argues that without a willingness to take risks, the security guarantees would be ineffective in deterring Russia.

As EU and US defense officials met to develop a plan, Russia launched a significant aerial attack on Ukraine. Following major strikes, Zelenskyy stated that there was no indication from Moscow of a genuine intention to negotiate and end the war. While a meeting between Ukrainian and Russian leaders was suggested, Zelenskyy has stated he would only meet once his allies agreed to security guarantees. Professor Fruehling expressed concern that any agreements would ultimately depend on Russia's actions.