WA Election Could Signal Federal Voting Trends as Parliament Balance Shifts

Western Australia is anticipating a return toward political balance after previously being recognized for having one of Australia's most skewed parliaments. This imbalance was highlighted in 2021 during the height of COVID restrictions, when the then-Premier Mark McGowan led Labor to a decisive victory, capturing an unprecedented 53 out of 59 lower house seats. The results were seen by some as a landslide victory for Labor, while others saw it as nothing short of a humiliating defeat for the Liberal opposition.

McGowan emerged as a highly popular political figure, significantly influencing national politics, even playing a supporting role in helping Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secure his position in Canberra. However, McGowan decided to step down two years later, departing the leadership while still widely respected.

Though today's election results are not expected to be as remarkable as the 2021 contest, they remain significant. With Albanese facing uncertainty about winning a majority government in the next federal election, the voting patterns in WA are gaining increasing attention. Both Albanese and the Liberal opposition under Peter Dutton see Western Australia as crucial to securing national governance.

Labor retains strong backing in state-level contests but experiences declining primary support federally. Consequently, Drum argues the upcoming results may not dramatically affect the federal scene, particularly if Labor sees a reduced majority but still secures power comfortably.

Tony Barry, a pollster from RedBridge, offered perspective on seats in Perth's outskirts, mentioning Jandakot and Forrestfield as insightful indicators for broader voting sentiments. He noted these areas, home to many working-class and aspirational families, could yield important clues about national preferences.

RedBridge polling data points to a potential 12 percent swing to the Liberals, with the most significant shifts likely occurring in outer suburban and regional areas. According to Barry, even such swings might be insufficient to allow the Liberals to reclaim many seats, given how far behind they stand currently. While roughly a dozen seats may be contestable for the Liberal party, reaching the numbers required to form government is unlikely.

Nevertheless, today's vote will serve as a valuable gauge of the Liberal Party's progress following years of reflection and reform efforts. It may also signal whether West Australian voters are again beginning to trust the party at state level, potentially impacting their federal voting intentions.