According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population of the United Kingdom has surpassed that of France for the first time in recorded history. Figures indicate that by mid-2023, the UK population stood at 68.3 million, exceeding France's population of 68.2 million. This growth trend is projected to continue, with estimates suggesting that by mid-2032, the UK's population could reach 72.5 million, marking an increase of nearly 5 million from the 67.6 million recorded in mid-2022.
The primary factor contributing to this population growth has been migration, as natural population change—the balance of births and deaths—is anticipated to stabilize at around zero. The ONS expects international migration to total approximately 4.9 million over the next decade, an upward revision from an earlier estimate of 4.5 million. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson commented on the situation, noting that while Labour leader Keir Starmer aims to reduce what he termed “staggeringly high levels” of migration, he would refrain from imposing arbitrary limits.
Births and deaths appear to be nearly equal, with both figures estimated at 6.8 million over the same time frame. Although a slight increase in births is anticipated, the number of deaths is also expected to rise due to an aging population born during the post-World War II baby boom. Projected net migration levels are set to average about 340,000 per year starting from mid-2028, which although lower than current figures, still marks a significant increase of around 100,000 compared to pre-Brexit levels.
Experts from think tanks highlight concerns over the sustainability of migration levels, pointing out that a substantial portion of the population growth will hinge on net migration figures. England's population is expected to expand more rapidly than that of the other UK nations in the coming decade, with projected growth rates of 7.8% for England, compared to 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland, and only 2.1% for Northern Ireland.
Economists have noted that the increasing number of working-age individuals, driven by migration, could positively impact the economy by boosting tax revenues and labor availability. However, some political figures have expressed alarm over the scale of projected migration, calling for more regulatory measures to limit the number of visas issued and to encourage the employment of underutilized adults in the UK workforce. This, they argue, would help reduce reliance on large-scale low-skilled migration while bolstering the economy through investment in technology and automation.
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