According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population of the United Kingdom has surpassed that of France for the first time in recorded history. Figures indicate that by mid-2023, the UK population stood at 68.3 million, exceeding France's population of 68.2 million. This growth trend is projected to continue, with estimates suggesting that by mid-2032, the UK's population could reach 72.5 million, marking an increase of nearly 5 million from the 67.6 million recorded in mid-2022.
The primary factor contributing to this population growth has been migration, as natural population change—the balance of births and deaths—is anticipated to stabilize at around zero. The ONS expects international migration to total approximately 4.9 million over the next decade, an upward revision from an earlier estimate of 4.5 million. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson commented on the situation, noting that while Labour leader Keir Starmer aims to reduce what he termed “staggeringly high levels” of migration, he would refrain from imposing arbitrary limits.
Births and deaths appear to be nearly equal, with both figures estimated at 6.8 million over the same time frame. Although a slight increase in births is anticipated, the number of deaths is also expected to rise due to an aging population born during the post-World War II baby boom. Projected net migration levels are set to average about 340,000 per year starting from mid-2028, which although lower than current figures, still marks a significant increase of around 100,000 compared to pre-Brexit levels.
Experts from think tanks highlight concerns over the sustainability of migration levels, pointing out that a substantial portion of the population growth will hinge on net migration figures. England's population is expected to expand more rapidly than that of the other UK nations in the coming decade, with projected growth rates of 7.8% for England, compared to 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland, and only 2.1% for Northern Ireland.
Economists have noted that the increasing number of working-age individuals, driven by migration, could positively impact the economy by boosting tax revenues and labor availability. However, some political figures have expressed alarm over the scale of projected migration, calling for more regulatory measures to limit the number of visas issued and to encourage the employment of underutilized adults in the UK workforce. This, they argue, would help reduce reliance on large-scale low-skilled migration while bolstering the economy through investment in technology and automation.
12 Comments
Rotfront
It's important to remember that most immigrants come here to work hard and contribute to the UK. They deserve our respect and support.
Karamba
This is a demographic time bomb. We are creating a society with an unsustainable age structure that will put an enormous strain on future generations.
Rotfront
This is a ticking time bomb! Unsustainable population growth will put a strain on resources and infrastructure. We need tighter immigration controls NOW!
Karamba
This is an opportunity to address the skills gap and boost our economy by attracting highly skilled workers from overseas.
Rotfront
The concerns about infrastructure and services are valid, but we should be investing in these areas anyway, regardless of immigration. We need to build a better future for everyone.
Habibi
The government should be doing more to promote social cohesion and integration. We need to create a welcoming environment for newcomers and help them to feel at home in the UK.
ZmeeLove
This will only benefit big corporations who want cheap labor. It's not in the interests of ordinary people who will end up paying the price.
Bella Ciao
The UK has a long and proud history of being a multicultural society. We should continue to embrace diversity and celebrate our shared values.
Muchacha
Immigration is not just about numbers, it's about people. We need to remember that every person we welcome here has a story and a dream. We should treat them with respect and compassion.
Mariposa
We should be looking at the long-term benefits of immigration, not just the short-term challenges. It is an investment in the future of our country.
Muchacho
I'm worried about the impact on our culture and social cohesion. Immigration is great, but we need to manage it in a way that doesn't undermine our shared values and traditions.
Coccinella
We need to invest in our infrastructure and services before we even consider bringing in millions more people. Otherwise, we're just storing up problems for the future.