Chinese and Indian Refiners to Seek Oil Elsewhere as US Sanctions on Russia Tighten
The new US sanctions on Russian oil producers and ships will significantly impact the global oil market, forcing Chinese and Indian refiners to seek alternative sources of oil. This will likely lead to increased demand for oil from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas, driving up prices and freight costs.
The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil. These sanctions target the revenues Moscow has used to fund its war with Ukraine. Many of these tankers have been used to ship oil to India and China, as Western sanctions and a price cap imposed by the G7 countries in 2022 shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia.
The sanctions will severely impact Russian oil exports, forcing Chinese independent refiners to cut refining output. Among the newly sanctioned ships, 143 are oil tankers that handled more than 530 million barrels of Russian crude last year, about 42% of the country's total seaborne crude exports. Of these, about 300 million barrels were shipped to China, while the bulk of the remainder went to India.
The sanctions will significantly reduce the fleet of ships available to deliver crude from Russia in the short term, pushing freight rates higher. A Singapore-based trader said the designated tankers shipped close to 900,000 bpd of Russian crude to China over the past 12 months. This is expected to drop significantly.
The new sanctions will push China and India back into the compliant oil market to seek more supply from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. Spot prices for Middle East, Africa, and Brazilian grades have already risen in recent months on rising demand from China and India as supplies of Russian and Iranian oil tightened and became more expensive.
Indian refiners are likely to scramble to find alternatives in Middle Eastern and Dated-Brent related Atlantic Basin crude. This will likely lead to a tighter Brent/Dubai spread.
As a result of the sanctions, China, the main buyer of Iranian crude, will also turn to heavier Middle Eastern oil and most likely will maximize its offtake of Canadian crude from the Trans-Mountain pipeline (TMX).
10 Comments
Rotfront
The US needs to find a diplomatic solution to this conflict, not resort to sanctions that hurt everyone.
Matzomaster
This is a short-sighted and irresponsible move by the US. They're only hurting themselves and their allies in the long run.
Karamba
These sanctions are just a way for the US to line the pockets of Big Oil. They don't care about human rights or stopping the war.
Matzomaster
These sanctions are hurting the global economy and benefiting nobody. It's time for a different approach.
Rotfront
This is just another example of how the US uses its power to bully other countries. This is not a solution, it's only making things worse.
KittyKat
The US is playing with fire with these sanctions. This could easily escalate into a wider conflict.
BuggaBoom
This will only push Russia closer to China and other adversaries. Is that really what the US wants?
Eugene Alta
Sanctions are not the answer. This is only going to prolong the conflict and cause more suffering.
Katchuka
This is just another example of how the US is destabilizing the world. They need to stop acting like the world's police.
Loubianka
These sanctions are going to backfire and hurt the US more than anyone else. It's time to wake up and realize the US is not always the good guy.