Brazil's January Trade Surplus Reaches Second-Highest Level Since 1989

Brazil Records Robust January Trade Surplus

Brazil's trade balance commenced 2026 with a substantial surplus, registering USD 4.342 billion in January. This figure marks the country's second-highest January surplus since records began in 1989, according to data released by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) on Thursday, February 5. The impressive surplus was largely attributed to a notable decline in imports, which outpaced a marginal decrease in exports.

Detailed Trade Figures

The January 2026 trade performance saw exports totaling USD 25.153 billion, representing a 1% decrease compared to January of the previous year. Imports, however, experienced a more significant downturn, falling by 9.8% to USD 20.810 billion over the same period. This led to an 85.8% increase in the surplus compared to January 2025, which recorded a surplus of USD 2.337 billion. The only January to surpass this year's result was in 2024, when the surplus reached USD 6.196 billion.

Factors Behind the Import Decline

The sharp reduction in imports was a primary driver of the strong surplus. Several sectors experienced significant drops in purchases from abroad:

• Extractive industry imports plunged by 30.2%.
• Agricultural and livestock imports declined by 28.7%.
• Imports from the transformation industry fell by 8.2%.

Geographically, imports from key trading partners also decreased, including Argentina (-13.6%), the United States (-10.9%), China (-4.9%), and the European Union (-11.5%). Officials and analysts suggest that this decline reflects an anticipated economic slowdown and weaker domestic demand in Brazil. A significant factor in the import reduction was a fall in purchases of fuel oils and crude oil.

Export Performance and Outlook

While overall exports saw a slight dip, performance varied across sectors. Extractive sales decreased by 3.4% and transformation industry exports slipped by 0.5%. However, these declines were partially offset by a 2.1% rise in agricultural shipments. Notable export items that saw declines included crude oil, iron ore, and coffee, while products like corn, soybeans, and beef showed strong growth. Exports to China notably jumped by 17.4%, contrasting with declines in sales to Argentina (-24.5%), the United States (-25.5%), and the European Union (-6.2%).

Despite the robust surplus, the overall trade volume for January 2026 shrank to USD 46 billion, a 5.1% decrease from the previous year. The MDIC had previously estimated Brazil's trade surplus for the entire year to range between USD 70 billion and USD 90 billion, surpassing the USD 68.3 billion surplus recorded in 2025.