Ukraine Intensifies Long-Range Strikes Inside Russia, Atlantic Council Cites Security Imperative

Escalation of Cross-Border Attacks

Since the summer of 2025, Ukraine has significantly escalated its long-range attacks on targets within the Russian Federation, marking a record high in such operations. These strikes, primarily utilizing advanced drones and domestically produced cruise missiles, have focused on military facilities, defense industry enterprises, and critical oil and gas infrastructure. The intensified campaign aligns with an analysis from the Atlantic Council, which posits that Ukraine's ability to strike inside Russia serves as its most effective security guarantee against future aggression.

Strategic Rationale and Impact

The Atlantic Council's perspective, articulated by figures such as Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, highlights that with Western partners potentially hesitant to directly intervene militarily, Ukraine's robust military capabilities, particularly its long-range strike capacity, are paramount for deterrence. These attacks are reported to have complicated the logistics of the Russian invasion and contributed to a notable decline in Russia's energy export revenues. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that in 2025, Ukrainian forces hit 719 targets deep inside Russia, resulting in an estimated US$15 billion in military and military-economic losses.

The targeting of Russian energy infrastructure has been particularly impactful. Reports from January 2026 indicate that Ukrainian drone strikes have pushed Russian oil supply to a 15-year low, with Russian oil processing significantly reduced. Global oil markets have reportedly incorporated geopolitical risk premiums ranging from 8-18% above baseline pricing as of January 2026, reflecting the disruptions. Repair timelines for damaged refinery equipment are extended due to reliance on Western components now subject to sanctions.

Psychological and Public Sentiment

Beyond military and economic consequences, the sustained long-range campaign has had a significant psychological impact within Russia. The Atlantic Council analysis suggests these strikes are 'helping to bring home the reality of the war to the Russian public.' A survey conducted by the Levada Center, an independent Russian pollster, found that 28% of respondents cited Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian cities and industrial facilities as the most notable event of the past year. This indicates that Ukraine's long-range bombing campaign has penetrated the Kremlin's narrative control and made a strong impression on the Russian population.

Recent Operational Details

Recent reports from Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) detail successful operations, including the destruction of 10 Russian air defense assets across Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts in a single week, with an estimated value exceeding $300 million. Destroyed equipment included advanced radar systems like the P-18-2 Prima, Tor-M2 launchers, and Tunguska systems. These operations underscore Ukraine's evolving arsenal of long-range weapons, including drones capable of reaching targets over 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.