Experts Intensify Discussions on Alyaksandr Lukashenka's Future in Belarus Amidst Transition Speculation

Speculation Mounts Over Lukashenka's Presidential Term

Discussions among political analysts and observers regarding a potential power transition in Belarus and the future of Alyaksandr Lukashenka's presidency have intensified. Despite Lukashenka securing a seventh five-year term in January 2025, extending his rule, experts are examining various factors that could lead to his departure before the completion of this term. Political communications expert Nastassia Kastsiuhova and political analyst Ihar Tyshkevich are among those who believe Lukashenka's current tenure could be his last, with Tyshkevich suggesting he might not even complete it.

Health Concerns and Constitutional Maneuvers

One significant factor fueling speculation is Lukashenka's health. Rumors gained traction in May 2023 when he appeared unwell during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, missed several events in Minsk, and was seen with a bandaged hand. While his office has not officially commented on his health, observers note a growing physical infirmity. Concurrently, Lukashenka has overseen significant constitutional reforms. A February 2022 referendum reintroduced presidential term limits of two five-year terms; however, a 'lex Lukashenko' clause ensures his previous terms are not counted, theoretically allowing him to remain in office until 2035. These reforms also constitutionalized the All-Belarusian People's Assembly (ABPA), granting it substantial powers. In April 2024, Lukashenka assumed the role of the first Chairman of the ABPA, a position he holds concurrently with the presidency, leading to speculation about its role in a future power transfer.

Expert Perspectives on Potential Transition Scenarios

Experts point to several indicators suggesting a transition is being prepared. Ihar Tyshkevich highlights the 'general degradation of the system of power,' where obedience is prioritized over competence, making the autocratic system vulnerable during crises. Economic shifts, including the declining influence of the public sector and the growth of the private sector, along with a shrinking core electorate for Lukashenka, are also cited as contributing factors. Potential scenarios for a power transition include:

• Transition to ABPA Leadership: Lukashenka could potentially shift his primary role to leading the ABPA, maintaining significant influence after stepping down from the presidency.
• Succession within the Inner Circle: Experts suggest he might install a loyalist from his inner circle as president, with little expectation of an immediate democratic shift.
• Health-Related Departure: A resignation due to health reasons remains a possibility.
• Power Vacuum: In the event of his sudden absence, a power struggle could emerge among various state institutions, including the presidency, government, parliament, ABPA, and the Constitutional Court.

The democratic opposition, largely operating in exile, is actively preparing for such a transition. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has emphasized the importance of Western partners having a clear strategy for Belarus in the event of a power shift. However, analysts note that the immediate outcome of any transition is unlikely to involve a significant role for democratic forces, with Russia's influence remaining a critical external factor.