China-Russia Trade Registers First Decline Since Ukraine War in 2025

Bilateral Trade Sees Significant Contraction

For the first time since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, trade between China and the Russian Federation began to decline in 2025. Data from China's General Administration of Customs indicates that the overall trade turnover between the two nations fell by approximately 8.7% to 10% during the first ten to eleven months of the year compared to the same period in 2024.

From January to October 2025, the total trade volume amounted to around $183.24 billion, according to Azernews, or $184.7 billion as reported by China's General Administration of Customs. This marks a notable reversal from the substantial growth observed in the years immediately following the 2022 invasion, when bilateral trade surged from $147 billion in 2021 to $245 billion in 2024.

Factors Impacting Russian Exports to China

The decline in Russian exports to China, primarily raw materials, was a significant contributor to the overall downturn. Chinese imports of Russian goods fell by an estimated 5.9% to 12.6%, totaling around $101.2 billion for the January-October period. Several key factors underpinned this reduction:

• Reduced Oil Purchases: China's purchases of Russian crude oil decreased by 7.6% in volume and 20% in monetary terms from January to November 2025, largely due to declining oil prices and widening discounts.
• US Sanctions: New US sanctions imposed in October 2025 on major Russian energy companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, led several Chinese state-owned energy companies, such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and Zhenhua Oil, to suspend or scale back purchases of Russian crude.
• Broader Commodity Decline: Imports of Russian petroleum products also saw declines, with light distillates down 3% and heavy products down 33% in volume. Exports of Russian coal to China fell by 11%, and ferrous metals collapsed by 63%.

Decrease in Chinese Exports to Russia

Chinese exports to Russia also experienced a notable drop, falling by approximately 6.7% to 11.9%, reaching around $82.07 billion to $83.5 billion in the first ten months of 2025. This decrease was primarily driven by:

• Reduced Transport Equipment Purchases: Moscow significantly cut its purchases of Chinese transport equipment, with car exports to Russia falling by nearly 50%. Passenger car exports alone plunged by 59% in the first half of 2025.
• Localization Efforts: This downturn was partly attributed to weakening demand in Russia and Moscow's strategic efforts to encourage foreign manufacturers to localize production within the country.

Broader Economic Context

The slowdown in bilateral trade contrasts with China's overall trade performance, which saw an increase of 3.6% with the rest of the world during the same period. The decline in trade with China has reportedly raised concerns within the Russian government, intensifying fiscal pressure on Moscow by eroding the tax base tied to energy exports. Russia's share in Chinese exports also decreased from 3.2% to 2.7%, causing Russia to drop to the ninth position among China's largest export markets.