Petrobras Unveils US$109 Billion 2026-2030 Business Plan, Prioritizing Oil and Gas

Petrobras Approves New Five-Year Strategy

Petrobras, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, officially announced its 2026-2030 Business Plan (BP 2026-30) on November 28, 2025, following its approval by the Board of Directors on November 27. The plan outlines a total capital expenditure (Capex) of US$109 billion over the five-year period. This figure represents a slight reduction of approximately 1.8% to 2% compared to the previous 2025-2029 plan, which projected US$111 billion in investments.

The company's strategy for the coming years reinforces its commitment to growth, value creation, and financial sustainability, driven by capital discipline and operational efficiency. Petrobras President Magda Chambriard highlighted the plan's significant economic impact for Brazil, projecting the generation and support of 311,000 direct and indirect jobs and an estimated contribution of R$1.4 trillion in taxes to municipalities, states, and the federal government.

Investment Focus: Oil and Gas Dominance

The new business plan allocates a substantial portion of its investments to oil and gas exploration and production (E&P). Approximately US$78 billion, or 71.6% of the total Capex, is earmarked for E&P projects. This marks an increase of about US$1 billion in this segment compared to the previous plan.

Key areas within E&P include:

• Pre-salt assets: Around 62% of upstream spending, approximately US$42.6 billion, is directed towards these deep-water fields.
• Exploration activities: A total of US$7.1 billion is allocated for exploration, including drilling 15 wells in Brazil's Equatorial Margin.

Petrobras anticipates achieving total oil and natural gas production of 3.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) by 2030, with peak production reaching 3.4 million boe/d in 2028-2029. Oil production alone is expected to peak at 2.7 million b/d by 2028.

Refining and Low-Carbon Initiatives

While maintaining a strong focus on its core oil and gas business, Petrobras also outlined investments in refining and low-carbon energy. The plan designates between US$15.8 billion and US$20 billion for Refining, Transportation, Marketing, Petrochemicals, and Fertilizers (RTM). The company aims to expand its installed refining processing capacity from 1.8 million b/d to 2.1 million b/d by 2030, primarily through upgrades and expansions of existing facilities rather than building new refineries.

Investments in Gas and Low-Carbon Energies (G&LCE) are set at US$4 billion. This represents a decrease from the US$8 billion allocated in the previous plan. The company's low-carbon priorities include biofuels such as ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and biobunker. Petrobras intends to pursue strategic minority partnerships or shared control with relevant players in these areas.

Dividend Policy and Market Context

The 2026-2030 Business Plan includes a commitment to a regular dividend payout of at least US$45 billion to US$50 billion over the period, consistent with the previous plan. However, the company did not commit to any extraordinary dividend payouts.

The adjustment in the investment plan comes amid a scenario of lower oil price assumptions, with Brent crude projected at an average of US$63 per barrel for 2026 and US$70 per barrel for 2027-2030, a notable decrease from the US$83 per barrel assumed in the prior plan. This marks the first time Petrobras has reduced its five-year budget under the administration of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.