Petrobras Reduces Five-Year Investment Plan to $109 Billion Amid Lower Oil Prices

Petrobras Adjusts Investment Strategy for 2026-2030

Petrobras, Brazil's state-controlled oil major, officially announced on Thursday, November 28, 2025, a 2% decrease in its next five-year investment plan, bringing the total to $109 billion. This revised plan, covering the period from 2026 to 2030, marks a reduction from the previous $111 billion allocated for the 2025-2029 period.

The decision was primarily driven by a need to shield the company's cash flow in response to lower international oil prices. Brent crude is currently trading near $63 a barrel, significantly below the $83 a barrel assumption used in the previous plan. This adjustment is the first time Petrobras has reduced its five-year budget since President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office in 2023.

Investment Allocation and Strategic Focus

Of the total $109 billion, approximately $91 billion is earmarked for projects already under implementation. An additional $10 billion requires budget confirmation pending further financing analysis. The company's strategic focus remains heavily on exploration and production (E&P), with 71.6% of the 2026-2030 plan, or $78 billion, dedicated to this segment. This includes efforts to boost output at deep-water fields in the pre-salt region and explore new areas both within Brazil and internationally.

Key investment areas include:

• Deployment of eight new offshore production units by 2030, with an additional 10 under consideration for post-2030.
• Plans to drill 15 wells in Brazil's Equatorial Margin, despite a $500 million cut, bringing the investment in this region to $2.5 billion.
• Approximately $20 billion allocated to refining and related businesses.
• $4 billion directed towards gas and low-carbon projects, focusing on biofuels, biomethane, and a return to ethanol production, often through strategic minority partnerships.

Implications for Dividends and Financial Stability

The reduction in capital expenditure is intended to bolster resilience against weaker crude prices and support shareholder payouts. Petrobras aims to maintain financial stability without increasing its debt or altering its dividend policy. The company has proposed regular dividend payouts of at least $45 billion for the 2026-2030 period, a figure similar to its previous plan. However, the new plan notably does not mention extraordinary dividends, which were suggested to be up to $10 billion in the prior plan. Petrobras has also maintained its debt ceiling at $75 billion.

Despite the investment trim, Petrobras expects oil production to peak at 2.7 million barrels a day by 2028, an increase from its previous plan's ceiling. The short-term target for next year has also been raised to 2.5 million barrels of oil a day.