French Poll Projects Far-Right Leader Jordan Bardella as Next President

Far-Right Leader Jordan Bardella Leads 2027 Presidential Race in New French Poll

A recent poll conducted by Odoxa, in collaboration with Mascaret for Public Sénat and regional press outlets, projects that Jordan Bardella, the leader of France's far-right National Rally (RN), would emerge victorious in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2027. The survey, conducted on November 19 and 20, 2025, among 1,000 to 1,300 French adults, indicates Bardella would win against all potential opponents.

Key Findings from the Odoxa Survey

The poll's results suggest a significant shift in French political sentiment. In the first round of voting, Jordan Bardella is predicted to secure between 35% and 36% of the votes, depending on the configuration of centrist candidates. This represents a notable increase of 3.5 to 4.5 points in his support over the past six months.

In hypothetical second-round matchups, Bardella consistently leads:

• Against far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Bardella is projected to win with a substantial 74% of the vote.
• When pitted against former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, Bardella secures 53%, though with a narrower margin. Philippe's overall support has reportedly fallen to 17%.
• Against moderate leftist Raphaël Glucksmann, Bardella is predicted to win with 58% to Glucksmann's 42%.
• Facing former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, Bardella leads with 56% compared to Attal's 44%. Attal's current approval stands at just 11%.

Jordan Bardella's Ascendancy and Political Context

Jordan Bardella, who is 30 years old, has served as the president of the National Rally since 2022 and as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) since 2019. His rising popularity has now surpassed that of his mentor, Marine Le Pen, with Bardella holding a 39% approval rating, four points ahead of Le Pen. He is increasingly seen as the party's natural candidate, particularly given that Marine Le Pen faces a potential five-year ineligibility ruling due to alleged misappropriation of funds, a decision she is currently appealing.

The broader political landscape in France is marked by declining approval for figures associated with current President Emmanuel Macron. Macron, who is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term in 2027, has seen his popularity fall significantly, reaching a historic low of 21%. This decline follows his decision to call a general election in mid-2024, which resulted in a hung parliament and political fragmentation.

Outlook Towards the 2027 Presidential Election

While the poll indicates a strong position for Jordan Bardella, Odoxa has issued a cautionary note, stating that being an 'overwhelming favourite' many months before an election is 'no guarantee of success'. Historically, broad political alliances have managed to defeat far-right candidates in the second round of French presidential elections. The next French presidential election is officially scheduled for April 2027.