India's Average Temperature Rises by 0.9°C in Last Decade, Study Reveals Escalating Climate Crisis

Significant Warming Trend Across India

India's average temperature has risen by nearly 0.9 degrees Celsius in the last decade, spanning from 2015 to 2024. This increase is observed when compared to the early 20th century baseline period of 1901-1930. A new peer-reviewed study, published in the journal PLOS Climate, highlights this accelerated warming, noting a substantial increase in the number of warm days across most parts of the country. The findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive adaptation strategies to address the escalating impacts of climate change in India.

The research, conducted by a team of climate scientists including Chirag Dhara (Krea University), Aditi Deshpande (Savitribai Phule Pune University), Roxy Mathew Koll (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology), Padmini Dalpadado (Institute of Marine Research, Norway), and Mandira Singh Shrestha (International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Nepal), synthesizes the latest observational data and climate model projections.

Intensifying Heat and Regional Impacts

Beyond the average temperature rise, the study reveals that the hottest day of the year has warmed by an even more significant 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius in western and northeast India since the 1950s. The number of warm days has increased by 5-10 days per decade across large swathes of the nation, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves.

The impacts are regionally varied and severe:

• The Hindukush Himalayas are experiencing accelerated warming and glacier melt, with projections indicating a 30-50% reduction in glacier volume by 2100.
• The Indo-Gangetic plains face increased heat stress and a decline in monsoon rainfall during the June-July-August-September (JJAS) season.
• Northwest India has witnessed an increase in both warm days and warm nights.
• Western India is experiencing a rise in extreme rainfall events alongside more warm days and nights.
• The western coast is contending with an increase in severe tropical cyclones and rising sea levels.

Warming Oceans and Compound Extremes

The tropical Indian Ocean, a critical regulator of India's climate, is warming at an alarming rate of 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade, making it one of the fastest-warming oceans globally. This rapid warming is fueling a dramatic increase in marine heatwaves, which are projected to occur for nearly 200 days per year by 2050, a significant jump from approximately 20 days per year in recent decades. This poses a grave threat to marine ecosystems, including coral reefs and fisheries, which are vital for the livelihoods of millions.

The study also highlights a growing risk of 'compound events,' such as concurrent heatwaves and droughts. These events can have a far more devastating impact than individual hazards, potentially overwhelming existing response capacities and leading to cascading effects on agriculture, water systems, and human health. Historical one-in-a-hundred-year extreme sea-level events are projected to become an annual occurrence by mid-century.

Urgent Need for Adaptation

The findings underscore that India's climate baseline has shifted, necessitating urgent and tailored region-specific adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable communities and ecosystems. The year 2024 was recorded as the hottest year on record for India since nationwide measurements began in 1901, further emphasizing the severity of the situation. The increased temperatures and heatwaves have also driven a surge in electricity demand, accounting for 9% of India's power demand in the summer of 2024, primarily due to cooling needs.