Japanese Public Divided on Taiwan Contingency, Backs Increased Defense Spending

Public Opinion Split on Taiwan Conflict Response

A recent poll conducted by the Kyodo news agency indicates a notable division within the Japanese public concerning potential military intervention should China launch an attack on Taiwan. The survey, published on Sunday, November 16, 2025, found that 48.8% of respondents support Japan exercising its right to collective self-defense in such a scenario, while 44.2% expressed opposition.

This nuanced public sentiment emerges amidst heightened regional tensions and recent assertive statements from Japanese leadership regarding the security of Taiwan, an island located approximately 110 kilometers (70 miles) from Japanese territory.

Strong Support for Accelerated Defense Buildup

Despite the split on direct military action, the poll revealed a clear majority in favor of strengthening Japan's defense capabilities. A substantial 60.4% of the public backs Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's initiative to increase Japan's defense spending.

Prime Minister Takaichi has articulated a plan to accelerate Japan's military buildup, aiming to reach a defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP by the end of the current fiscal year. This goal is ahead of the original target of fiscal 2027. This accelerated push is part of a broader five-year, 43-trillion-yen ($285 billion) package set in 2022, marking a significant departure from Japan's post-World War II practice of limiting defense budgets to around 1 percent of GDP.

Context of Regional Tensions and Diplomatic Spat

The poll results follow recent remarks by Prime Minister Takaichi on November 7, where she suggested that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a 'survival-threatening situation' for Japan, potentially triggering a military response. These comments have reportedly intensified a diplomatic spat between Tokyo and Beijing. China has criticized Takaichi's statements, with its Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stating that they 'seriously damaged the political foundation of Japan-China relations,' and has reportedly issued a travel advisory for Chinese citizens planning to visit Japan.

Japan's security legislation, revised in 2015, allows for the exercise of collective self-defense, enabling the country to respond with force if it or a close ally faces an attack that threatens Japan's survival. This legal framework provides the basis for discussions around Japan's potential role in a Taiwan contingency.