China Accelerates US Soybean Purchases, Signaling Commitment to Trade Truce

China Resumes Significant US Soybean Imports

China has notably accelerated its acquisition of American soybeans, marking a significant development in the trade relationship between the two nations. This surge in purchases follows a period of reduced activity and is being interpreted as a clear signal of Beijing's commitment to a recently established trade truce.

On Monday, November 18, 2025, China's state-owned agriculture trader, Cofco Group, reportedly purchased at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans, amounting to approximately 840,000 metric tons or nearly 1 million tons. These shipments are slated for delivery in December and January from Pacific Northwest ports and Gulf Coast terminals. Some reports suggest the total purchases on that day could be as high as 20 cargoes, equating to about 1.2 million metric tons or 44 million bushels.

Commitment to Trade Deal

The increased buying comes after a six-month period of near-zero US soybean exports to China, which was largely due to retaliatory trade measures. The White House has indicated that these purchases are part of a broader 'Deal on Economic and Trade Relations' reached in November. Under this agreement, China has pledged to purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of US soybeans during the final two months of 2025 and a minimum of 25 MMT annually from 2026 through 2028.

While China has not publicly confirmed these specific purchase figures, it has taken conciliatory steps, including reducing tariffs on the crop and lifting import bans on certain American exporters, such as CHS Inc.

Market Reaction and Future Outlook

The news of China's renewed buying spree had an immediate impact on global markets. Chicago soybean futures rallied by as much as 3.2% on Monday, reaching a 17-month high of $11.57 per bushel, before experiencing a slight easing. This market response highlights the significance of Chinese demand for US agricultural products.

However, the situation is not without complexities. Analysts note that China has substantial soybean stockpiles and has been diversifying its suppliers, heavily importing from South American nations like Brazil and Argentina. Furthermore, US soybeans currently face higher prices compared to Brazilian alternatives, partly due to remaining Chinese tariffs, which are around 34%. Even with the recent commitments, projections suggest that total US soybean exports to China in 2025 might still be lower than in 2024 and could represent the lowest volume since 2018. US farmers, while welcoming the purchases, remain 'cautiously optimistic,' mindful that China has canceled orders in the past.