Russia Plans Significant Increase in Guided Bomb and Drone Production by End of 2025, Ukrainian Intelligence Reports

Russia's Ambitious Weapon Production Targets Revealed

The Russian Federation reportedly plans a substantial increase in its production of guided aerial bombs (KABs) and Shahed-type drones by the end of 2025. According to Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR/GUR), Russia aims to manufacture up to 120,000 KABs and 30,000 Shahed-type drones within this timeframe. This information, conveyed in interviews with Reuters and Ukrinform around November 14, 2025, suggests a significant escalation in Russia's military manufacturing capabilities.

Escalation in Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Production and Capabilities

The reported target of 120,000 KABs by the end of 2025 includes bombs already in stock, those currently in production, and those scheduled for manufacturing. Ukrainian intelligence notes a marked intensification in the daily use of these weapons by Russian forces, with an estimated 200 to 250 KABs launched daily, an increase from approximately 170 per day in previous months.

KABs are conventional aerial bombs equipped with universal modular planning and correction units (UMPK modules), which add wings and guidance systems, enabling them to glide to targets from a distance and allowing Russian aircraft to operate from safer zones. While earlier versions had a range of up to 50-90 kilometers, Russia is now reportedly producing new extended-range variants. Approximately 500 of these newer bombs, capable of flying up to 200 kilometers, are planned for production by year-end. Furthermore, there are indications that Russia is developing modifications to achieve ranges of up to 400 kilometers, potentially incorporating jet propulsion systems.

Shahed Drone Expansion and Alleged North Korean Labor

In addition to KABs, Russia plans to produce at least 70,000 long-range drones of various types in 2025, with 30,000 of these identified as Shahed-type UAVs. These drones, based on Iranian designs, are frequently employed by Russia to target Ukraine's energy grid and critical infrastructure, often in swarming attacks.

A key facility for the domestic assembly of these drones, known as 'Gerans' or 'Gerberas' in Russia, is the Alabuga factory in Tatarstan. Ukrainian intelligence (HUR/GUR) reports that Russia intends to import up to 12,000 North Korean workers to this plant by the end of 2025 to bolster Shahed drone production. This move is seen by Ukrainian intelligence as a sign of Russia's increasing reliance on Pyongyang and the strain on its industrial capacity due to the demands of the war. Negotiations for this labor transfer reportedly took place in October 2025 between Russian Foreign Ministry officials and the North Korean Jihyang Technology Trade Company.

Broader Context of Russia's Military-Industrial Complex

These reported production increases align with a broader trend of expansion within Russia's military-industrial complex. Russia's defense spending for 2025 is projected to reach a record high of 13.5 trillion rubles (approximately $133.63 billion), constituting nearly 40% of the government's total expenditure. The military-industrial complex encompasses around 6,000 companies and employs an estimated 3.5 million people, representing 2.5% of the country's population.

Analysts note that Russia's industrial sector growth is predominantly driven by defense, with civilian industries experiencing contractions. Ukrainian intelligence further assesses that these efforts are not solely aimed at sustaining the conflict in Ukraine but also at preparing for a potential confrontation with NATO countries by 2030.

Implications for the Conflict

The reported plans for a massive increase in the production of guided aerial bombs and drones, coupled with technological advancements and the alleged use of foreign labor, underscore Russia's commitment to intensifying its military capabilities. These developments pose significant challenges for Ukraine, necessitating a corresponding response to counter the growing volume and sophistication of Russian weaponry.