Central Bank Revises 2025 Inflation Outlook
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) announced on Friday, November 7, 2025, a significant upward revision to its year-end inflation forecast for 2025. The new projection places the expected inflation rate in a range of 31 to 33 percent. This figure represents an increase from the previous forecast of 25 to 29 percent, which was outlined in the bank's third inflation report of the year.
CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan presented the updated outlook during a press conference held in Istanbul. The revision underscores the ongoing challenges faced by the Turkish economy in its efforts to curb persistent price increases.
Details of the Forecast Adjustment
The updated forecast was part of the bank's fourth inflation report for the year. Governor Karahan highlighted that while the annual inflation rate in October 2025 eased to 32.87 percent—marking its lowest level in 47 months—inflation had been above the bank's previous forecast range in the preceding two months. A primary factor contributing to this pressure was identified as food inflation.
Despite the revised forecast range, the CBRT confirmed that its interim inflation targets remain unchanged. The interim target for 2025 is set at 24 percent, for 2026 at 16 percent, and for 2027 at 9 percent. These interim targets are distinct from the forecast ranges and serve as firm commitments for monetary policy actions.
Monetary Policy Stance and Future Outlook
Governor Karahan reiterated the Central Bank's unwavering commitment to achieving price stability, emphasizing it as a prerequisite for sustainable growth and increased social welfare. He stated that the bank would maintain a tight monetary policy stance until price stability is secured and is prepared to take further action if risks to the inflation path emerge.
The CBRT will continue to adopt a cautious, meeting-by-meeting approach when making decisions on policy interest rates and their magnitude, with a focus on the inflation outlook. For 2026, the bank projects inflation to moderate to a range of 13 to 19 percent. This outlook contrasts with the government's Medium-Term Program, which had projected 28.5 percent for end-2025 and 16 percent for end-2026.
5 Comments
Raphael
Another forecast hike? This is getting ridiculous, our savings are gone!
Leonardo
Tight policy isn't working if forecasts keep rising. It's just words.
Michelangelo
Acknowledging the global economic pressures contributing to inflation, the upward revision still highlights the severe domestic challenges Turkey faces. The bank's willingness to take further action is good, but the public needs to see tangible results quickly.
Raphael
The Central Bank is being open about the difficult economic reality, which is important for trust. However, for ordinary people, these high inflation numbers mean real hardship, and there's a strong demand for more effective, immediate solutions beyond just forecasts.
Donatello
Where is the accountability? These interim targets are a joke, clearly unattainable.