South Africa Targets 28.7GW Solar Capacity by 2039 in Major Renewable Energy Push

South Africa Unveils Ambitious Solar Expansion Plan

South Africa is set to add 28.7 gigawatts (GW) of new solar photovoltaic (PV) generation capacity by 2039, a key component of its updated energy strategy. This ambitious target is part of the nation's latest Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2025), which projects that more than half of South Africa's domestic electricity will be generated from renewable sources by 2042. The plan was recently presented by Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, the South African Minister of Electricity and Energy.

Strategic Shift Towards Renewables

The IRP 2025 marks a significant departure from previous energy policies, notably being the first such plan not to include the addition of any new coal generation capacity. Instead, it forecasts substantial renewable power additions to both replace decommissioned coal plants and meet the country's growing electricity demand. This strategic shift is primarily driven by the need to address South Africa's persistent electricity crisis, characterized by frequent blackouts, and to enhance energy security while pursuing decarbonization goals.

Beyond solar PV, the plan also outlines substantial investments in other renewable technologies, including 43 GW of wind capacity by 2039. By 2042, the share of coal in the national energy mix is projected to significantly decrease to just 11%. The overall roadmap aims for over 105 GW of new generation capacity to be added between 2025 and 2039.

Investment and Infrastructure Challenges

Achieving these targets will require an estimated cumulative investment of approximately R2.2 trillion (around $127 billion) by 2042. A substantial portion of this investment is expected to come from private-sector participation and off-balance-sheet financing.

However, the expansion of the national transmission grid presents a significant challenge. Experts indicate that South Africa will need approximately R390 billion over the next 10 years to expand its transmission infrastructure, including building over 14,000 km of new high-voltage lines by 2035. Without adequate grid expansion, many renewable energy projects currently in the pipeline could face delays in connecting to the national grid.

Future Outlook

The IRP 2025 is seen as a blueprint for re-industrializing the energy value chain, with expectations for increased local assembly of turbines, solar modules, transformers, and battery components. From a climate perspective, the plan projects a decline in national power-sector emissions, aligning with South Africa's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and its 2050 net-zero ambition. The successful implementation of this plan is crucial for South Africa's economic revival and human development, providing a clear framework to guide investment and diversify the power sector.