Significant Drop in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reported
Brazil's gross greenhouse gas emissions experienced a substantial decline of 16.7% in 2024 compared to the previous year, according to a report released by the Climate Observatory, a network of civil society organizations. This reduction represents the largest annual drop in 16 years, specifically since 2009, and the second largest recorded since measurements began in 1990. In 2024, Brazil released 2.145 billion tonnes of polluting gases into the atmosphere, a decrease from 2.576 billion tonnes in 2023.
Reduced Deforestation as Key Driver
The primary factor contributing to this significant decrease in emissions was a notable reduction in deforestation across the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Emissions from land use change, which includes deforestation, saw a 32.5% reduction in 2024. This highlights the impact of conservation efforts on the country's overall carbon footprint. However, while emissions from land use change decreased, other sectors recorded increases. Emissions from the energy sector rose by 0.8%, industry by 2.8%, and waste management by 3.6%. The livestock industry remains a major contributor, accounting for over half of Brazil's total emissions in 2024, largely due to deforestation practices and methane emissions from cattle.
Brazil Remains Off Track for NDC Targets
Despite the positive trend in overall emissions reduction, Brazil is currently projected to miss its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals. The country's 2025 NDC target aims to limit net emissions to 1.32 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. However, current estimates suggest net emissions will reach approximately 1.44 billion tonnes by the end of 2025, exceeding the target by about 9%.
Brazil also submitted an updated 2035 NDC mitigation target on November 13, 2024, committing to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 59% to 67% below 2005 levels. This translates to an absolute reduction of 850 million to 1.05 billion tons of CO2e by 2035. Nevertheless, analyses by organizations such as the Climate Action Tracker and Climate Action Network indicate that even this updated 2035 NDC is not fully aligned with the 1.5°C compatible pathways outlined in the Paris Agreement, with some assessments rating it as 'Almost sufficient' or 'Insufficient' when compared to modelled domestic pathways.
Challenges and Future Outlook
Brazil, which is the fifth largest emitter of greenhouse gases globally, faces ongoing challenges in its climate policy. While the government under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has emphasized environmental protection, concerns persist regarding contradictory policies, including plans for significant subsidies for new oil and gas development and the absence of a clear timeline for phasing out fossil fuels. The nation is set to host the COP30 climate talks in Belém in 2025, placing its climate actions under international scrutiny.
6 Comments
Coccinella
Achieving a 16.7% reduction is a notable accomplishment, especially from land use changes. Yet, the article clearly states their 2035 targets are still not aligned with 1.5°C pathways, indicating much more ambitious action is required.
anubis
Huge progress! The deforestation efforts are clearly paying off.
paracelsus
This report offers a glimmer of hope with the significant emissions decline, primarily due to deforestation control. But Brazil remains a top emitter, and without addressing livestock and fossil fuels, sustained progress will be difficult.
anubis
5th largest emitter globally and still 'insufficient' on targets. Disappointing.
eliphas
The focus on reducing Amazon deforestation is a positive sign from the current administration. However, the continued plans for oil and gas development cast a shadow over their long-term climate commitments.
anubis
It's great to see such a significant overall emissions drop, but the fact that Brazil is still projected to miss its 2025 targets highlights the scale of the challenge. More comprehensive policy changes are clearly needed.