Jefferies Reaffirms 'Buy' Rating on Eurobank and National Bank of Greece Ahead of Q3 Results

Jefferies Boosts Price Targets for Leading Greek Banks

Jefferies, a prominent investment firm, has reaffirmed its optimistic outlook on Eurobank and the National Bank of Greece (NBG), two of Greece's largest financial institutions. This endorsement comes just days before the banks are set to release their third-quarter 2025 financial results. The firm has not only maintained its 'Buy' recommendation for both lenders but has also increased their respective price targets.

Specifically, Jefferies raised its price target for NBG to €15.50 from €13.55 and for Eurobank to €4.15 from €3.70. The investment firm's positive assessment is underpinned by what it describes as 'strong momentum, underpinned by robust capital adequacy, predictable profitability, and improved funding conditions' as the banks approach the final quarter of 2025. Lower financing costs are also seen as enhancing shareholder return potential, with both institutions demonstrating resilience and operational strength.

Anticipated Q3 Performance and Strategic Strengths

Eurobank is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results on October 30, 2025, followed by NBG on November 6, 2025. Jefferies anticipates these announcements will 'confirm the continued resilience of the Greek banking system'.

• For Eurobank, Jefferies projects another solid quarter, expecting a return on tangible book value (RoTBV) of 15.3%. The firm also foresees a €25 million extraordinary charge related to the school infrastructure program, alongside a €15 million accounting gain from the CNP acquisition. Net profit forecasts for 2026–2027 have been lifted by 2%.
• NBG is expected to maintain steady profitability and a strong capital base, which are identified as key investment drivers. Its CET1 ratio is projected to increase to 19.0%, significantly above its internal target of 14%, solidifying its position as Greece's best-capitalized bank. NBG is also noted for combining a high return on tangible equity (ROTE) of 19% with a low non-performing exposure (NPE) ratio of 2.5%, making it 'the highest-quality play in the Greek banking sector'.

Broader Market Sentiment and Future Outlook

The positive sentiment from Jefferies aligns with views from other major financial institutions. Analysts at JP Morgan and Bank of America also maintain a positive outlook for Greek banks, despite an expected mild decline in net interest income (NII) during the third quarter of 2025. Both firms have maintained their target prices for the sector.

Market attention is expected to focus on growth strategies in bancassurance and forecasts for dividend distribution in 2025, with NBG, Eurobank, and Alpha Bank showing significant upside potential. Jefferies has also adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026–2027 upwards by 2% for the Greek banking sector, incorporating a higher ECB deposit rate of 2%.