Russian Gasoline Prices Surge Amid Ukrainian Strikes on Fuel Infrastructure

Fuel Prices Reach Record Highs

The Russian Federation is experiencing a notable surge in gasoline prices, with wholesale costs reaching unprecedented levels. Reports indicate that the price of AI-92 and AI-95 petrol climbed to 73,100 and 81,400 roubles per tonne, respectively, on August 21, 2025, surpassing previous peaks. Since the beginning of 2025, petrol prices have risen by approximately 50%, with the most significant increases occurring over the summer months. A report by Gazeta.ru highlighted a 10% increase in gasoline prices since January 2025, marking the sharpest rise in 15 years.

Impact of Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes

This escalation in fuel costs is largely attributed to Ukraine's intensified long-range drone campaign targeting Russian oil refineries and fuel infrastructure. Since August 2025, Ukraine has reportedly conducted over 60 strikes on Russian energy sites, disabling at least 21% of the country's refining capacity. Some assessments suggest that more than 20 major refineries have been hit, leading to an estimated reduction in crude processing by 500,000 barrels a day, or 17% (approximately 1.1 million barrels per day). The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the impact of these strikes will suppress Russia's refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026.

Public Concern and Shortages

The rising prices and supply disruptions have generated considerable public concern. A poll conducted by online finance platform WEBBANKIR, reported by Gazeta.ru on October 18, revealed that 74% of Russian drivers have 'noticed' gasoline price increases since August 2025, and a substantial 90% anticipate further increases. The poll also found that 56% consider the price hikes significant, and 18.9% have encountered empty gas stations. Consequently, around 40% of Russian drivers have altered their driving habits, and 38% have begun purchasing cheaper fuel. Fuel shortages have been reported in various regions, including occupied Crimea, where roughly half of gas stations have ceased gasoline sales due to disrupted deliveries. Between August and September 2025, approximately 360 gas stations across Russia reportedly shut down due to shortages.

Government Response and Economic Implications

In response to the escalating crisis, the Russian government has implemented several measures. These include imposing fuel export restrictions, initially a temporary ban from July 28 until the end of August, which has since been extended. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged a 'small deficit' in petroleum products and proposed actions to boost domestic fuel availability, such as removing a 5% import tariff for state-controlled companies and temporarily approving Monomethylaniline (MMA) as an octane booster. President Vladimir Putin signed a decree easing restrictions on fuel subsidies for domestic refiners to ensure continued state support. Additionally, the Federal Antimonopoly Service is considering a proposal to impose maximum prices at gas stations. Analysts suggest that these price increases and shortages are likely to contribute to higher inflation and macroeconomic instability within Russia.