CBCS Projects Continued Tourism-Led Economic Growth for Curaçao and Sint Maarten in 2025

Economic Outlook for 2025

The Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (CBCS) has released its latest economic projections, indicating continued, albeit moderating, growth for both Curaçao and Sint Maarten in 2025. This positive outlook is largely attributed to the sustained strength of the tourism sector, which continues to be the primary engine of economic activity for the monetary union. According to the CBCS's September 2025 Economic Bulletin, both economies entered 2025 on a favorable trajectory, bolstered by significant increases in stay-over and cruise arrivals.

For Curaçao, the CBCS projects a real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared to its June 2025 forecast. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its 2025 Article IV consultation, similarly projects Curaçao's growth to moderate to 4% in 2025. Meanwhile, Sint Maarten is expected to see its economy expand by 2.8% in 2025, also an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points from the June forecast. The IMF anticipates a 3% expansion for Sint Maarten in the same period.

Drivers of Growth and Sectoral Contributions

The anticipated economic expansion is predominantly fueled by the thriving tourism industry. Increased activity in sectors such as hospitality, trade, and transport directly benefits from the influx of tourists. Beyond tourism, the construction sector is also expected to contribute significantly, supported by both public and private investments. In Curaçao, growth will be driven by stronger net foreign demand, with higher tourism earnings boosting exports, and a lower oil import bill due to declining oil prices. Private demand, particularly from ongoing investment projects in utilities, real estate, and tourism, will also play a crucial role.

For Sint Maarten, robust cruise and stay-over arrivals, coupled with new private investments in housing and commercial projects, and government spending on infrastructure, are set to underpin its growth. The expansion of hotel capacity is also a key factor in sustaining the island's economic momentum.

Navigating Global Uncertainties and Fiscal Stability

Despite the positive projections, the CBCS acknowledges that the economic outlook remains fragile due to a deteriorating global environment and increasing uncertainties. These include potential shocks in global trade and investment, a sharper-than-expected global slowdown, and geopolitical instability. Both economies also face domestic challenges such as demographic pressures, strained healthcare and pension systems, and climate vulnerability.

On the fiscal front, both Curaçao and Sint Maarten are projected to maintain stable positions. Curaçao is expected to sustain a current budget surplus of 2.2% of GDP through 2026, with its debt-to-GDP ratio continuing to decline. Sint Maarten's fiscal stance is also set to improve, with its current budget balance shifting to a surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2025 and 2026. Inflation is expected to ease in both jurisdictions, with Curaçao's inflation projected at 2.6% in 2025 and Sint Maarten's at 2.0%.