ADB Maintains China's 2025 Growth Forecast at 4.7%, Lowers Inflation Outlook to 0%

ADB Releases Latest Economic Projections for China

MANILA, PHILIPPINES – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced today, September 30, 2025, that it is maintaining its forecast for China's economic growth at 4.7% for the year 2025. This projection remains unchanged from its April assessment. Concurrently, the ADB has revised its inflation outlook for China downwards to 0% for 2025, a decrease from the 0.4% forecast made in April. These figures were released as part of the bank's latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025.

Factors Influencing Growth and Inflation

The decision to hold the growth forecast steady for China is attributed to several key factors. The ADB noted that expansionary fiscal policy, robust industrial activity, and strong exports contributed to higher-than-expected gross domestic product growth during the first half of 2025. Policy support, including fiscal expansion and targeted subsidies, has been instrumental in sustaining growth momentum despite existing headwinds.

Conversely, the lowered inflation outlook to 0% reflects continued food price deflation and subdued domestic demand within the country. This indicates a more moderate price environment than previously anticipated.

Challenges and Policy Recommendations

Despite the maintained growth forecast, the ADB highlighted several challenges that could impact China's economic trajectory. These include a worsened external environment, ongoing weakness in the property market, and subdued household income growth and consumption. These factors are expected to continue weighing on growth through the latter half of 2025 and into 2026.

Asif S. Cheema, ADB Country Director for the People's Republic of China (PRC), emphasized the importance of policy measures. 'Policy support, including fiscal expansion and targeted subsidies, has helped sustain growth momentum despite headwinds from the property sector and external trade tensions,' Cheema stated. He added, 'Continued efforts to boost domestic consumption will be crucial for sustaining growth as external uncertainties may weigh on the demand for PRC exports.' The ADB also noted that timely implementation of stimulus and reform measures, as suggested during the July Politburo meeting, remains crucial to effectively offset potential headwinds.

Regional Context and Future Outlook

While China's growth forecast remains stable, the broader outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific has seen some adjustments. The ADB has trimmed its overall growth forecast for the region to 4.8% for 2025, down from 4.9% in April, primarily due to higher US tariffs and elevated global trade uncertainty. However, China's unchanged forecast stands out against some regional downgrades, reflecting its unique economic dynamics and policy responses. The risks to China's outlook remain tilted to the downside, with global trade environment and policy uncertainties posing significant challenges.