How Trump's Policies Are Reshaping the Global Order and Presenting Opportunities for Xi Jinping

It is evident that Chinese President Xi Jinping is pleased with Donald Trump's return to the White House. This was apparent at recent events, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit and a military parade in Beijing commemorating the 80th anniversary of China's victory over Japan. Trump's actions, such as imposing tariffs and alienating allies in the Indo-Pacific region, have created an environment where China can assert itself.

The attendance of leaders from various countries at these events, including India and Vietnam, highlights the impact of Trump's policies. While some nations, like Indonesia and Malaysia, maintain close ties with both the US and China, the gathering served as a platform for Xi to portray China as a champion of free trade, international law, and peace, despite the questionable validity of these claims.

The gathering, however, was not a sign of strength for all participants. Russia, Iran, and North Korea attended out of weakness, not strength. Russia faces challenges in its war in Ukraine, Iran's military reputation has been damaged, and North Korea's economy remains dependent on Chinese support. Their presence underscored their subordinate status to China.

The presence of India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi was a symbolic confirmation of Trump's success in alienating a country that previous administrations had courted. However, Modi's attendance should not be interpreted as a complete shift in allegiance. It was meant to demonstrate India's independence and its unwillingness to be dictated to by any nation, including China.

The event was not a demonstration of a new, China-centered world order. It confirmed the strength of the Sino-Russian axis and highlighted the isolation of America from its traditional allies.

The key question is how China will respond to America's isolation. Xi Jinping is likely aware of China's economic challenges, including a weaker economy and a shrinking population. The US, too, may face economic difficulties and domestic political conflict.

If Xi perceives America as weakened and distracted, he might choose to test or exploit this situation. China could increase pressure on the Philippines in the South China Sea, potentially triggering the Mutual Defense Treaty. A more dangerous scenario would be a move against Taiwan.

While Xi is likely to remain cautious, the risk of him exploiting American weakness to seize Taiwan is a serious concern. Such a move would be a test of China's power, with potentially catastrophic consequences.