Reform UK Gains Ground in By-Elections, Signaling Continued Momentum

Nigel Farage is likely pleased this morning, as Reform UK secured a number of new council seats in recent by-elections. The party achieved victories in four separate elections, indicating that their progress is continuing.

In the Vale of Glamorgan, Reform won the Illtyd seat with 31.3% of the vote, a significant achievement considering they did not participate in the previous election in 2022. Labour's support declined substantially, dropping into fourth place after previously winning the seat. Reform also won in the Stotfold ward of Central Bedfordshire council, receiving 30.8% of the vote and pushing the Labour Party into third place.

Reform's success continued in Newmarket East (West Suffolk), where they secured their third seat by taking 29.7% of the vote, again placing Sir Keir Starmer’s party in fourth position. Their most significant victory occurred in Walsall, where Reform won the Pelsall ward by-election with a substantial 45% of the vote, taking the seat from the Tories. This represented a considerable increase in their vote share, while the Conservatives experienced a significant decline. Nadine Dorries, a recent defector to Reform, expressed her satisfaction with the party's win in her former constituency.

Reform was unsuccessful in only one of the five by-elections. The Conservatives gained a seat on Cheshire East council. Reform's consistent strong performances in council by-elections, held weekly, further demonstrate the threat they pose to the established parties. The party achieved a remarkable outcome in May's local elections, gaining a large number of councillors and councils, exceeding initial expectations. Reform has also led in every national opinion poll since early April.