Report Warns of Projected Decline, Forecasting Wales Behind Romania by 2040

Wales is projected to fall behind Romania in educational performance by the year 2040. The research, conducted by the center-right think tank Onward, indicates that Welsh pupils currently demonstrate educational attainment levels comparable to the most disadvantaged students in England. The report forecasts this decline, particularly concerning given that education in Wales is a devolved matter overseen by the Labour-led Welsh Government.

Ellie Craven, a senior researcher and author of the report, emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating that Wales currently has the lowest educational outcomes within the United Kingdom, and that this gap is expected to widen. She stressed that this outcome is not predetermined, but that significant reforms are needed to prevent Welsh pupils from falling behind not only within the UK, but also on a global scale.

Sir Simon Clarke, a former Tory Cabinet minister and now director of Onward, expressed concern that Welsh children are being underserved by a system lacking accountability and clinging to ineffective methods. He asserted that there is no inherent reason for Welsh children to achieve less than their peers elsewhere in the UK. He suggested that change is needed, either through the Welsh government's willingness to implement reforms or through a change in leadership following the upcoming elections.

The report, titled "Devolved to Fail," highlights that Wales lags behind the average and significantly behind England in reading, science, and mathematics, as measured by the international PISA rankings conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The report projects that Wales's overall PISA scores will fall below those of Romania by 2040 if current trends persist.

The report proposes several key changes, including converting failing schools into academies and reintroducing league tables. It also advocates for replacing the current skills-based curriculum with a knowledge-rich one and for the immediate implementation of recommendations from Wales's school inspectorate regarding attendance improvement.

In response to the report, a Welsh Government spokesperson stated that they do not recognize the claims made. They highlighted recent improvements in GCSE and A-level results, including record-high grades, and progress observed in primary stage learners based on personalized assessments. The spokesperson emphasized the government's commitment to raising education standards through additional support for schools, continued investment, and the dedication of school staff.