A Battle in the Skies Reveals Intelligence Gaps and Raises Questions About Modern Air Combat

A J-10CE fighter jet, manufactured in China, was undergoing test flights and pilot training before its delivery to the Pakistan Air Force on March 11, 2022.

A report by Reuters provided details regarding the downing of an Indian Rafale fighter jet during a clash between India and Pakistan on May 7. The report suggests that the Rafale pilots misjudged the range of the Chinese-made PL-15 missile fired by the J-10. During the aerial engagement, which occurred at night, the J-10s reportedly shot down at least one Rafale, according to US officials cited in the report. Another Reuters report indicated that Pakistan claimed the J-10 was used to down three Rafale aircraft.

The incident surprised many military observers and raised questions about the effectiveness of Western military hardware against Chinese alternatives. The Reuters report indicated that the primary factor in the Rafale's downing was an Indian intelligence failure concerning the range of the PL-15 missile, rather than the Rafale's performance.

Indian officials stated that faulty intelligence gave the Rafale pilots a false sense of security, leading them to believe they were beyond the Pakistani firing range. They believed the range of the PL-15 was approximately 150 kilometers, based on the export variant's widely cited range. However, Pakistani officials reported that the PL-15 that struck the Rafale was fired from around 200 kilometers away, with Indian officials suggesting an even greater distance. This would make it one of the longest-range air-to-air strikes on record.

A Chinese military affairs expert noted that the PL-15E's long range is a key feature, potentially exceeding the range of previous missiles significantly. The PL-15E utilizes a mixed guidance system, including inertial navigation, satellite navigation, datalink, and active radar terminal guidance. Its range was stated as 145 kilometers at the Airshow China 2021.

Indian defense and foreign ministries did not respond to requests for comment regarding the intelligence failures. While India has not acknowledged the loss of a Rafale, France's air chief stated he had seen evidence of the loss of that fighter and two other Indian aircraft. A Dassault executive also confirmed the loss of a Rafale in operations.

In response to a question at the 55th Paris Air Show, a spokesperson from the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) stated that both the J-10CE and the Rafale are advanced fighters. The spokesperson expressed the hope that all cutting-edge fighter jets could contribute to global peace.

A spokesperson from the Chinese Defense Ministry, when asked about the Chinese military's equipment supplied to Pakistan, called on both India and Pakistan to remain calm, exercise restraint, and avoid escalating the situation. China stated it would continue to play a constructive role in maintaining regional peace and stability.