Mass Migration

Conflicting Data, Uncertain Trends, and the Challenges of Accurate Measurement

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem reported a 1.6 million decrease in unauthorized immigrants since President Trump's immigration policies began, crediting an ad campaign. The data source is U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, though the Department of Homeland Security's release cited an analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies.

Experts caution against drawing firm conclusions, as estimates are preliminary. Pew Research Center data shows the undocumented population grew by 3.5 million from 2021 to 2023. The Center for Immigration Studies used a smaller survey, potentially making estimates less reliable.

Researchers estimate unauthorized populations by subtracting legal immigrants from the foreign-born population. The Census Bureau advises against using the smaller Current Population Survey for this. The Center for Immigration Studies estimated a 2.2 million drop in the total foreign-born population, including legal immigrants. Some economic indicators also suggest a decline in industries reliant on unauthorized labor.

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5 Comments

Avatar of eliphas

eliphas

This is misleading. The data sources are not reliable enough to support such claims.

Avatar of paracelsus

paracelsus

Even if the numbers are preliminary, a 1.6 million decrease is a significant achievement!

Avatar of eliphas

eliphas

It's refreshing to hear of any drop in unauthorized immigrants, especially amid all the doom and gloom.

Avatar of anubis

anubis

Experts are already saying these conclusions are shaky. Why should we believe them?

Avatar of eliphas

eliphas

We need real, actionable data—not just political talking points that mislead the public.

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