A Deep Dive into Voter Expectations, Policy Preferences, and Concerns Following Election Gains

A July Mainichi Shimbun poll revealed that approximately 19% of respondents held positive expectations for Sanseito, a right-wing populist party that saw gains in the recent House of Councillors election. While a larger percentage, 46%, expressed negative views, the level of interest in the party extended beyond its core supporters, as its actual support rate was only 8%. The survey aimed to understand the reasons behind voters' hopes and skepticism regarding Sanseito by analyzing open-ended responses.

The survey asked respondents with positive expectations to identify their favored party policies and explain their reasoning. Those with negative expectations were asked to specify their points of disagreement and the reasons behind them.

Among those with positive expectations, the party's "Japanese First" and foreigner-related policies were frequently cited. Supporters expressed sentiments such as prioritizing Japanese citizens and addressing concerns about foreign land ownership. These policies resonated with voters, particularly those concerned about foreign real estate purchases, rising prices, and the impact of increased inbound tourism following the COVID-19 pandemic.

The focus on "Japanese First" played a significant role in making foreigner-related policies a key election issue. Sanseito's early emphasis on these issues captured the attention of voters. Additionally, some respondents appreciated the party's stance on "anti-espionage," specifically the proposed introduction of an anti-espionage law.

Other positive appraisals included support for tax cuts, reductions in social insurance premiums, and the desire for the party to serve as an alternative to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Conversely, the most common reason for negative views was also related to the "Japanese First" and foreigner-related policies. Many respondents expressed concerns about discrimination and exclusion, fearing that the party's stance could lead to such outcomes.

Some respondents also criticized the party for making statements lacking scientific basis and numerical evidence. Concerns were also raised about potential policies such as conscription and pro-nuclear armament, despite the party's official stance. These anxieties were apparently fueled by comments from some of the party's members.

The party's success in the upper house election brings with it significant responsibility, as it must now navigate the expectations and anxieties of voters.