Examining the Risks and Ramifications of Trump's Private Diplomacy with Putin

a private meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is a volatile situation. In 2018, the two leaders convened at the invitation of the Finnish president to address strained US-Russia relations, allegations of election interference, and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine. Following the meeting, Trump appeared to be swayed by the Russian leader. When questioned about the US intelligence community's findings regarding Russian interference in the elections, Trump stated he saw no reason to disagree with Putin's denial.

The stakes are even higher as Trump and Putin prepare to meet in Anchorage, Alaska. This meeting, Putin's first with a G7 leader since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, will reportedly involve discussions about "land swapping." European leaders are concerned that Trump might once again emerge from a closed-door meeting echoing the Kremlin's perspective. The White House has tempered expectations for the summit, suggesting no concrete agreements are anticipated. Trump has indicated he will assess Putin's willingness for a ceasefire within minutes and then relay his assessment to Ukrainian and European leaders.

Putin is expected to attempt to shape Trump's perception of a potential peace deal to benefit the Kremlin. Experts suggest Putin aims to present a deal to Kyiv and European capitals as a done deal. The absence of European leaders at the meeting raises concerns, drawing parallels to the Yalta Conference of 1945, where the fate of several European nations was decided without their involvement. Ukraine has already stated it will not concede territory that could be used for further Russian offensives, effectively dismissing Trump's predictions of land swaps.

Trump's unconventional approach to foreign policy can be advantageous to the US's adversaries, but it can also frustrate them. Leaders like China's Xi Jinping reportedly prefer more preparation before meeting with Trump due to his unpredictability. Russia has also expressed frustration with the lack of established processes within the Trump administration. Despite this, Putin is taking the opportunity to meet with Trump for their first one-on-one meeting of this administration.

The White House has described the meeting as a "listening exercise" for Trump to understand the Russian perspective. Experts have noted Trump's tendency to improvise in such settings. The absence of advisors in the room raises questions about the potential for any agreements made in private to have lasting impact.

The Helsinki summit provides a cautionary tale. Trump and Putin reportedly agreed on a deal that would allow US law enforcement access to GRU operatives accused of influencing the US elections, in exchange for Putin having access to Americans responsible for pushing for the anti-corruption Magnitsky Act. The agreement ultimately failed to materialize, highlighting the potential for misunderstandings and the lack of concrete outcomes from such private meetings.