Disarmament Dilemma, Internal Conflict Risks, and Escalating International Pressure

The Lebanese government is facing a critical dilemma due to mounting pressure from the United States. It must decide whether to risk a war with Israel or confront Hezbollah within its own borders. The US has been actively pushing for the disarmament of Hezbollah, a move that has created a tense situation.

The US's push for faster disarmament has led to warnings from unnamed sources in Lebanese media, suggesting that failure to disarm Hezbollah could lead to another war with Israel. The Lebanese government initially appeared to acquiesce, announcing a plan for the army to control all arms by the end of the year. However, Hezbollah and its political ally, Amal, rejected the decision, accusing the government of following US orders.

a confrontation with Hezbollah. If cornered, Hezbollah might use force to protect its weapons. The current government was formed after the last Hezbollah-Israel war, with US support. The election of Joseph Aoun, who aimed to restore the state's control over violence, was a sign of change in Lebanon and the region.

Hezbollah had previously dominated Lebanon for two decades, evolving from a resistance group into a powerful political force. Its influence was weakened after a war with Israel and the toppling of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. The new Lebanese government, however, has been cautious in its approach, avoiding actions that could provoke Hezbollah or alienate its supporters.

The government's strategy has focused on state-building to include Hezbollah's supporters in Lebanon's national project. Officials recognize that the conditions that led to Hezbollah's rise in the 1980s still exist today, including Israeli occupation and the marginalization of the Shia population. However, the US views the government's gradual approach as stalling.

US officials seem more focused on immediate disarmament than on strengthening the Lebanese state, putting the government's state-building project at risk. Experts have warned that this approach could backfire, pushing more Shia Lebanese to support Hezbollah. Israeli airstrikes, violating the ceasefire, have also undermined the government's claim to protect sovereignty.

The Lebanese army is ill-equipped to confront Hezbollah, and the international community has shown little interest in helping it become a stronger fighting force. Despite these challenges, international pressure to disarm Hezbollah is likely to increase. There is a consensus among the US, Saudi Arabia, and the EU that the question is no longer if Hezbollah should be disarmed, but how.