Election Losses, Internal Strife, and the Path to Recovery

The ruling coalition's significant losses in the July 20 Upper House election, coupled with the previous autumn's Lower House poll setbacks, represent a clear lack of confidence in Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his Liberal Democratic Party. The party's revitalization efforts will be challenging if they fail to acknowledge this reality and instead become consumed by internal debates about Ishiba's leadership.

During a lengthy informal meeting of party lawmakers on July 28, Ishiba reaffirmed his intention to remain in his position. However, Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama indicated his resignation to take responsibility for the election outcome after a report analyzing the results is compiled. Despite this, many attendees of the meeting called for Ishiba's resignation, prompting LDP executives to schedule a joint plenary meeting of Diet members, which holds the authority to vote on significant matters.

Given the failure to maintain the ruling coalition's majority in the Upper House, the Prime Minister bears responsibility. However, simply replacing the party leader will not satisfy the public. A recent survey revealed that 81% of respondents attributed the LDP's defeat to problems within the party, while only 10% blamed Ishiba. Even among LDP supporters, approximately 80% held the party accountable for the election's poor results.

Distrust of the LDP intensified following questions about its long-standing relationship with the former Unification Church after the assassination of Shinzo Abe. Subsequent revelations of substantial cash accumulation by LDP factions, including the largest one formerly led by Abe, through fund-raising parties further damaged the party's reputation. The scandal led to the resignation of Fumio Kishida as prime minister. The party continues to struggle with the negative consequences of the money scandal and its past ties with the Unification Church.

If lawmakers implicated in both scandals now call for Ishiba's resignation, it will appear as an attempt to deflect responsibility and regain power. Even though Ishiba was not part of the mainstream during Abe's time as prime minister, he has failed to address the LDP's issues and implement comprehensive reforms. The public likely believes that the LDP will not change regardless of its leadership.

Sanseito and other parties gained significant ground in the Upper House election. Sanseito advocated for stricter regulations against foreigners, stemming from the perceived lack of effort during the Abe administration to foster a society of coexistence, despite the push for increased foreign workers.

To maintain control of the government, the LDP must confront the voters' dissatisfaction and distrust. This requires meaningful discussions about the necessary structure for implementing policies to prevent societal fragmentation and a concerted effort to gain public understanding.