NHS Chief Warns of Potential Doctor Strikes Through Christmas

The head of the NHS has cautioned patients to prepare for the strong possibility of strikes by doctors lasting until at least Christmas. Junior doctors are currently on a five-day strike over pay, now entering its third day, with NHS officials warning that more strikes could occur in the months ahead. The discussions between the Department of Health and the British Medical Association (BMA) have yielded little resolution, prompting concerns about the duration and impact of these actions.

David Probert, the chief executive of University College London Hospitals and deputy chief executive of NHS England, indicated that the situation might be prolonged, stating that reorganizing the healthcare system could turn into a long-term issue. Junior doctors hold a strike mandate until early January, and union representatives have suggested that this autumn may see an increase in industrial actions. Recent indicative strike ballots were sent to consultants and mid-grade doctors in response to the government's pay proposal, which was deemed inadequate.

Separately, the GMB union is considering action following a majority rejection of a 3.6 percent pay offer among ambulance and hospital staff. Meanwhile, the Royal College of Nursing is expected to release the results of its pay ballot this week, with indications of robust participation. Sir Jim Mackey, NHS England's chief executive, emphasized the challenges of maintaining hospital waiting times amid ongoing disruptions. He noted that past experiences showed such strikes could lead to compounding issues for both patients and healthcare workers.

As the situation escalates, tensions between the unions and government officials have intensified. The BMA is exploring legal options after indications that the government might attempt to limit the ability of striking doctors to take on supplementary locum shifts for income. Junior doctors are advocating for a 26 percent pay increase to offset what the BMA claims are real reductions in pay since 2008. In response, the government points to a previous appointment of a 28.7 percent salary increase over three years for junior doctors that concluded prior strikes, though many medical professionals argue this increase did not adequately address earlier wage declines and inflationary pressures since 2021.

Furthermore, recent surveys suggest a decline in public support for the strikes, with a YouGov poll revealing that only 34 percent of the public currently backs the actions, a significant decrease from 59 percent in March 2023; the majority now opposing the strikes has risen to 52 percent.