Japan's Ruling Party Suffers Election Setback, Weakening Prime Minister's Grip on Power

Following the upper house elections, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba addressed the media at the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo. The ruling LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, experienced a significant setback, losing control of the Upper House in the recent election. This marks the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955 that the party has lost a majority in both houses of parliament.

This outcome is widely seen as weakening Prime Minister Ishiba's position, even though he has stated his intention to remain party leader. He cited an upcoming tariff deadline with the United States as a key reason for staying in office. The election results, while not directly leading to the fall of his administration, have increased pressure on Ishiba, who also lost control of the more influential lower house in October.

The consecutive losses are expected to intensify calls for Ishiba's resignation after less than a year in power. Public trust in the LDP and its coalition partner has been declining due to rising prices and dissatisfaction with the government's handling of inflation. A former deputy prime minister and LDP figure, Taro Aso, expressed his disapproval of Ishiba remaining as prime minister. However, Ishiba has stated his commitment to staying in office, emphasizing the importance of ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States.

A Chinese expert suggests that Ishiba may face challenges in maintaining support within his party, as internal divisions exist between those who support his continued leadership and those who oppose it. The expert described the election as a major political shift, a significant blow to the LDP, and noted the party is facing pressure from the opposition, internal dissent, and public discontent.

Populist opposition parties, particularly the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito, are projected to gain seats. Multiple Chinese analysts have noted that populist parties, which promote "Japan First" rhetoric, are accelerating a political rightward shift in Japan. While opposition parties gained ground, fundamental policy differences between the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Democratic Party for the People prevent viable coalition-building in the near term.

Another expert believes that the election results may not directly trigger a change in prime minister. While the LDP currently lacks a consensus successor, Ishiba's political standing will face intensified challenges. Opposition factions within the LDP are likely to become more active in their efforts to position themselves for future leadership. The election outcome is not expected to fundamentally alter Japan's overall diplomatic trajectory, as the drive for national strategic transformation and enhanced international standing has become a cross-party consensus.