Sir Keir Starmer's Approval Ratings Plummet as Leadership Contest Heats Up

This month, Sir Keir Starmer's personal approval ratings have hit an unprecedented low, with a survey by More in Common revealing public satisfaction with the Prime Minister at -43, coinciding with a confusing U-turn regarding benefit cuts. On the first anniversary of the Labour government, a polling reflection suggested that if an election were held, Reform UK would achieve victory. The data highlights the public's disappointment with Labour's numerous reversals on policies, including winter fuel payments and the inquiry into grooming gangs, as well as perceived failures in delivering on promises like the proposed inheritance tax on farmers and compensation for WASPI women.

Public frustration seems widespread across Starmer's cabinet, and recent polling from Labour List indicates that the leading candidate to succeed Starmer isn't even a sitting MP. Greater Manchester's Mayor, Andy Burnham, has garnered the backing of 57% of members, with over half placing him among their top contenders and nearly a third naming him as their first choice for leadership. In contrast, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is falling behind, with 47% including her in their preferred choices and only 20% identifying her as their top pick. Rayner’s position has been underscored by a leaked memo that questioned Rachel Reeves' tax policies, although her actions during the Birmingham bin strikes may jeopardize her support.

Adding to the criticism, the leader of the Unite union, a significant Labour backer, cautioned about severing ties with the party due to Rayner's lack of involvement in the strikes, denouncing her response as "utterly abhorrent." Burnham has publicly criticized the government's approach to welfare reforms, urging officials to adopt Greater Manchester as a model for a more cohesive reform strategy. He pointed out that the challenges residents face in securing employment often stem from interconnected issues such as housing, personal debt, and mental health—suggesting that an integrated approach is necessary to tackle these complex factors.

According to Damian Lyons Lowe, the chief executive of Survation, if Starmer were to unexpectedly step down, Angela Rayner is the leading candidate to succeed him, with Burnham following closely. Other potential successors, including Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper, and Clive Lewis, are significantly trailing behind, while figures in high office like Rachel Reeves and David Lammy have little recognition among party members.