Putin's Consideration of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine Amid Battlefield Challenges

A former senior officer of the British Army has indicated that Vladimir Putin is contemplating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, as the Russian military has struggled to leverage its significant advantages in personnel and weaponry for substantial progress on the battlefield. According to a recent report from the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Russia has achieved control of only around 5,000 square kilometers since January 2024, representing less than one percent of Ukrainian territory, and inflicting considerable losses in terms of lives and resources.

The report highlights that Russian forces in the Kharkiv area are advancing at an average rate of merely 50 meters per day, which is slower than the pace observed during the World War I Somme offensive, where advances reached about 80 meters daily. This stagnation on the frontlines may lead Putin to consider nuclear options, as suggested by Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former Colonel and weapons expert. In his commentary for the Telegraph, he notes that Putin's consistent threats of nuclear action indicate serious contemplation, suggesting that as the conflict drags on, he might see nuclear weapons as a means to swiftly resolve the situation.

De Bretton-Gordon also argues that the recent agreement for a Franco-British nuclear weapons collaboration could serve as a critical deterrent, compelling Putin to rethink any nuclear strikes, especially considering the possibility of French retaliation aimed at Russian military targets in Ukraine. He stresses that any tactical nuclear exchange would have far-reaching consequences and threaten the very military structure that Putin relies on to maintain power. Ultimately, he commends the leadership of Macron and Sir Keir for recognizing that strength is necessary to counter Putin's aggressive tactics and expresses hope that US leadership is similarly fortifying, which might prevent a broader conflict in Europe and lead to a resolution for Ukraine.