U.S. Tariff Revenue Expected to Soar Under Trump's Trade Policies

The U.S. has collected approximately US$100 billion in tariff income so far this year, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He anticipates this figure could reach US$300 billion by the end of 2025, driven by the acceleration of collections from President Donald Trump's trade policies.

Bessent explained that the significant revenue from Trump's new tariffs began in the second quarter, coinciding with the implementation of a nearly universal 10% duty on U.S. imports and increased duties on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. The US$300 billion target refers to the end of the calendar year 2025, not the end of the government's fiscal year.

Reaching US$300 billion in tariff collections this year would indicate a substantial increase in collections in the coming months, along with significant tariff increases from current levels. Bessent also mentioned that the Congressional Budget Office has estimated tariff income to total about US$2.8 trillion over a decade, a figure the Treasury believes is potentially underestimated.

In May, the Treasury reported record gross customs duties of US$22.8 billion, a nearly fourfold increase from the US$6.2 billion recorded a year prior. This brought the total customs duty collections for the first eight months of fiscal 2025 to US$86.1 billion. Collections for the first five months of calendar 2025 totaled US$63.4 billion.

The Treasury is expected to release June budget results soon, which are anticipated to show another substantial increase in tariff collections. As of June 30, combined customs and excise tax collections exceeded US$122 billion for the fiscal year to date.

President Trump has set a new deadline for higher "reciprocal" tariff rates on nearly all trading partners, with potential for negotiations in the coming weeks to lower rates for some countries. Trump also announced a 50% tariff on copper imports and indicated further tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.