Ruling Coalition's Upper House Majority at Risk, Survey Suggests

A recent survey conducted by The Asahi Shimbun indicates that the ruling coalition is at risk of losing its majority in the Upper House. This assessment is based on an early poll conducted via phone and internet on July 3rd and 4th, along with insights gathered by Asahi reporters.

The upcoming July 20th election will see approximately half of the 248 Upper House seats contested. The ruling coalition needs to secure 50 seats to maintain its majority, as it already holds 75 uncontested seats. However, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the leading party within the coalition, is projected to fall short of the 52 contested seats it currently holds.

The LDP faces particular challenges in the 32 single-seat prefectural districts, which have been crucial in recent Upper House elections. The survey reveals the LDP leading in only 12 of these districts, while opposition candidates are ahead in nine. Eleven seats remain too close to call. This contrasts sharply with the LDP's strong performance three years ago, when it won 28 of these single-seat districts.

The survey suggests the LDP may win around 27 prefectural district seats and approximately 12 seats in the proportional representation portion of the vote. The junior coalition partner, Komeito, is also expected to fall short of the 14 contested seats it currently holds, potentially winning only 10.

The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, is likely to gain a few seats from the 22 it has up for grabs. The Democratic Party for the People and the emerging right-wing Sanseito party are also showing promise in the early stages of the campaign. The DPP could more than double its current three seats in the proportional representation constituency, while Sanseito could gain around 10 seats.

Other opposition parties, including Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), the Japanese Communist Party, and Reiwa Shinsengumi, are struggling to increase their seat count. The Social Democratic Party and the Conservative Party of Japan might each gain a seat in the proportional representation section.

The final outcome remains uncertain, as a significant portion of voters remain undecided. Approximately half of those contacted in the prefectural districts and 40% in the proportional representation segment have yet to make a decision. The survey involved a combination of phone and internet polling, with a large sample size of voters.