Japan's Ruling Coalition Faces Tough Challenge in Upcoming House of Councillors Election

The ruling coalition in Japan, comprised of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito, is currently engaged in a competitive struggle against opposition parties ahead of the election for the House of Councillors, set for July 20. A recent poll conducted by Kyodo News highlights a shift in voter sentiment that may result in the LDP losing its previous advantage in the 248-member chamber, with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Democratic Party for the People seemingly poised to gain seats.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition is aiming to secure a majority in the upper house by winning at least 50 of the 125 seats that are available in this election. The LDP-Komeito bloc currently holds 75 seats in the chamber that are not up for grabs this time around, but failure to meet the target could jeopardize Ishiba's leadership, especially after losing majority control of the House of Representatives in the last general election.

Out of the 125 contested seats, 74 will be decided based on singular electoral districts and the remaining 50 seats through proportional representation, with an additional seat to be filled for a vacancy. The LDP is challenged in single-member districts and predictions suggest it will acquire between 40 to 44 seats, a decline from 52 previously. Meanwhile, Komeito is likely to struggle to keep its 14 contested seats.

In contrast, the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, is expected to capitalize on its prior strength, with projections showing an increase to between 25 and 29 seats. Additionally, the Democratic Party for the People is anticipated to retain its four contested seats while possibly gaining more. Voter apprehension about inflation remains a significant issue, with the ruling coalition proposing cash handouts to mitigate the effects of rising prices, while the opposition is advocating for tax reductions.

Lastly, the Japan Innovation Party, which holds 17 seats, is predicted to perform less favorably than in the prior election, where it secured 12. With a 17-day campaign still ongoing, the political landscape remains uncertain, as a significant portion of voters—22.1 percent—indicated that they are undecided in their electoral district, and 10.3 percent remain undecided regarding proportional representation.