Targeting Outer Boroughs and the Potential for a Political Reshaping

In the 2024 London mayoral election, Reform UK secured fifth place with nearly 4% of the vote. However, the political landscape has shifted significantly since then. While still trailing Labour in London, Reform is experiencing rapid growth in the outer boroughs of the city. This shift has been substantial enough to warrant coverage from the BBC. Polling data indicates that while Reform's current voter share in London is relatively small, a larger percentage of residents are open to considering a vote for the party in the future. Professor Tony Travers from the London School of Economics identifies several boroughs to watch, including Barking and Dagenham, Havering, Bexley, Hillingdon, and even Sutton. These areas are generally closer to Essex, where Reform already holds parliamentary seats, and Kent, where they control a local council.

These areas also tend to have voted to leave the European Union in 2016 and are generally less racially diverse. It is possible that Reform's message will resonate with some minority groups, particularly British South Asians. A significant portion of this demographic voted to leave the EU in 2016. Similar to the trend of British Indians increasingly supporting the Conservative Party due to their stance on crime, taxes, and support for families and small businesses, a similar shift could occur with Reform. It is inaccurate to assume that all ethnic minorities, who comprise nearly half of London's population, uniformly lean left, considering their generally more socially conservative views and the higher representation of these groups in small businesses and self-employment. Established communities that immigrated to Britain legally are likely to oppose illegal immigration and its associated pressures. If Reform's support mirrors the Leave vote, it is worth noting that Bradford, Luton, and Slough, all of which voted to leave the EU, are now extremely racially diverse.

Reform is unlikely to gain significant traction in areas like Islington. However, the party has a strong chance in areas like West London. For example, Southall was evenly split in the 2016 referendum. Outer London may be within Reform's reach, as the capital, like other urban areas, is disproportionately affected by housing pressures, overcrowding, and crime. The Conservative Party's influence in the capital is waning. The era of Boris Johnson's successful mayoral terms is over. Nigel Farage, a Member of Parliament for Essex, now has a significant opportunity to gain support in London and other major cities, as urban Britain experiences a shift in political alignment.