Reform UK Surge Threatens Labour and Conservatives, Polls Show

Warnings have been issued that replacing Sir Keir Starmer as leader will not prevent a surge in support for Reform UK. Recent poll projections indicate that Nigel Farage's party is on track to become the largest in the next parliament.

Pressure is also mounting on Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. A YouGov analysis suggests the Conservatives would be relegated to fourth place if an election were held immediately. Several Labour Cabinet ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Defence Secretary John Healey, and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, are projected to lose their seats to Reform. Other prominent Labour figures, such as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden and Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, would also be defeated. Overall, Reform is predicted to win a significant number of seats, with Labour trailing behind.

Richard Tice, Reform UK's deputy leader, commented on the results, emphasizing the party's widespread appeal across the political spectrum. He stated that voters are rejecting the established two-party system.

Simon Danczuk, a former Labour MP who ran for Reform in a recent by-election, predicted that Starmer would be removed by his own party within the next 12 to 18 months. He attributed Labour's declining popularity to Starmer's perceived hypocrisy, failures in addressing key issues, and a disconnect with working-class voters. Danczuk believes that replacing Starmer will not improve the situation.

A Labour MP whose seat is at risk from Reform criticized the party, arguing that they capitalize on public distrust of politicians. Another Labour MP emphasized the need to expose the perceived lack of substance in Reform's policies. A Labour insider suggested that the best way for Labour to counter Reform is by improving public services in underserved areas.