A Growing Health Crisis Driven by Obesity and Projected to Worsen

A recent study by Chinese public health experts estimates that China had approximately 233 million diabetic patients by 2023. This represents a significant increase of 163 percent compared to the year 2005. The research, published in the June issue of Military Medical Research, was led by Zhou Maigeng from the National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

The study revealed a substantial rise in diabetes prevalence. Compared to 2005, the prevalence increased by nearly 50 percent, reaching 13.7 percent in 2023, up from 7.53 percent. Projections indicate that if the current trend continues, the national prevalence could reach 29.1 percent by 2050. The researchers emphasized the urgent need to enhance disease management and improve public awareness to achieve optimal treatment outcomes.

The study also highlighted disparities in prevalence, noting that males generally exhibited a higher prevalence than females. Furthermore, Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai were identified as cities with the highest diabetes prevalence and disease burden. The researchers attributed the surge in diabetes prevalence to the rapid increase in obesity rates.

The study also noted that the prevalence of obesity among adults increased from 7.1 percent in 2002 to 16.4 percent during 2015–2019. However, with effective policies in place to curb the obesity epidemic, researchers projected that the prevalence will gradually flatten and remain below 15 percent nationally in 2050.

Diabetes poses significant health risks, affecting multiple organ systems and leading to various complications, including cardiovascular diseases and conditions affecting the liver and kidneys. In 2021, diabetes and high fasting plasma glucose were the fourth highest risk factor for disease burden in China, accounting for 6.47 percent of total years lived with disability. The economic costs associated with diabetes are also substantial, with a recent study estimating that the total cost could reach $460 billion by 2030 without immediate intervention.