A Potential Flashpoint in the Wake of US-Iran Tensions

President Donald Trump's decision to bomb Iranian nuclear sites has heightened concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East. The United States, alongside Israel, has initiated a significant military action against Iran since the 1979 revolution, prompting global anticipation of Iran's response.

Analysts suggest that Iran might retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz. This vital trade route handles over a fifth of the world's oil supply and a substantial amount of liquefied gas daily. Iran has previously threatened to close the strait, which would disrupt trade and impact global oil prices, but has not yet acted on this threat.

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial oil chokepoint, holding significant geo-strategic importance. Located between Oman and Iran, it connects the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, the strait is 33km wide, with the shipping lane being only 3km wide. Approximately one-fifth of the world's oil consumption passes through this strait.

Closing the strait could impose direct economic consequences on the United States, triggering oil price increases and inflation. However, it would also be economically damaging for Iran. Shutting Hormuz could potentially involve Gulf Arab states, who have criticized the Israeli attack, in the conflict to protect their own interests. China, which relies heavily on the strait for its oil imports, would also be significantly affected.

Reports indicate that some supertankers have already altered their course in the strategic waterway following the US strikes. Iran's parliament approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision rests with the country's top leaders. Iranian officials have hinted at potential retaliatory actions, with the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stating that Israel has made a "grave mistake" and "must be punished.