Navigating Geopolitical Currents and Domestic Pressures in Indonesian Foreign Policy

The Indonesian President, Prabowo Subianto, chose to visit Russia instead of attending the G7 meeting in Canada, a decision that has drawn attention from Western nations. The official explanation was a pre-planned meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Prabowo opted to attend the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, often referred to as "Russia's Davos." This forum serves as a platform for Russia, which is facing Western sanctions due to its actions in Ukraine, to attract foreign investment and showcase its business and technological advancements. Prabowo was invited as a guest of honor by the Kremlin.

Some analysts suggest that Prabowo may not have fully considered the implications of his decision. Others speculate that he might have been attempting to encourage greater engagement from the West. This decision followed reports of Moscow's efforts to persuade Jakarta to host long-range bombers in Indonesia's Papua province, which caused concern in Australian foreign policy and defense circles.

During his meeting with Putin, a strategic partnership was established. Putin expressed support for Indonesia's bid to become a full member of BRICS, a group of non-Western nations. Prabowo's Foreign Minister has visited Russia multiple times in recent months, highlighting the growing relationship.

Some observers believe that the visit to Russia is more about Prabowo's personal relationship with Putin and his desire to be seen on the global stage. The decision also comes amid potential trade tensions with the United States and a perceived disillusionment with US influence. Russia is increasing its engagement with Indonesia at a time when the US and some European countries have reduced funding for certain programs.

Despite the visit to Russia, it is not necessarily a complete rejection of Indonesia's Western partnerships. Indonesia has historically maintained a "free and active" foreign policy, remaining non-aligned. This is evident in recent visits from Australian and French leaders.

Analysts note that Indonesia's ties with the US and Australia remain stronger than those with Russia. Russia has not been a reliable investment partner for Indonesia in the past. Economic ties between the two countries are limited, with China and the US being larger foreign investors in Indonesia.

The decision to skip the G7 may also be influenced by domestic political considerations. Indonesia, like many Southeast Asian nations, differs from Western powers on issues related to Israel, the war in Gaza, and attacks on Iran. Prabowo's visit to St Petersburg may have been motivated by Putin's flattery and a desire to avoid domestic political challenges, rather than a deliberate snub of the West. Prabowo's foreign policy emphasizes maintaining relationships with many countries.