Israel's Nuclear Ambitions, US Options, and the Shadow of Escalation

As Israel initiates a significant military campaign aimed at dismantling Iran's nuclear program, experts suggest that only the United States possesses the necessary weaponry to achieve this goal. Since the announcement of "Operation Rising Lion," Israel has conducted strikes near several nuclear sites, including those in Natanz and Isfahan, while also targeting and assassinating key Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists.

While the UN's nuclear watchdog has assessed damage to above-ground sites in Natanz and Isfahan, and potentially underground centrifuges at Natanz, Iran's underground facilities, particularly the Fordow enrichment plant, are believed to be unaffected. Fordow, heavily fortified and built deep within a mountain, is designed to withstand attacks. In 2023, the IAEA reported the discovery of uranium enriched to a high level at Fordow, nearing the threshold for weapons-grade material.

Despite Israel's control of Iranian airspace, analysts believe that only the US possesses the conventional aerial weapons capable of successfully penetrating Fordow's defenses. This weapon is the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a large bomb designed to penetrate deep underground before detonating. The MOP, capable of reaching significant depths, is considered the most effective tool for targeting such hardened facilities.

However, even the US weapons may struggle to destroy the Fordow facility, given its depth. Furthermore, direct US involvement carries significant risks, potentially escalating the conflict and destabilizing the region. Despite these risks, speculation about potential US involvement has increased.

The clearest indication of US plans to deploy its bunker busters would be the movement of its B-2 bomber jets, the only aircraft authorized to carry the MOP, to a specific military base. Former US officials have expressed concerns about providing such weapons to Israel, citing the potential for misuse. The potential for nuclear contamination from an attack also poses a significant danger.

The IAEA has issued warnings, emphasizing the risks associated with military action against nuclear facilities. However, Israeli officials have suggested that they have alternative plans to address the Fordow facility.

Former US officials have mentioned a plan previously considered by Israel, involving commandos infiltrating the facility. However, experts acknowledge the difficulty of targeting Fordow. Iran denies allegations of developing nuclear weapons, the stated reason for Israel's attacks. Both sides have reported casualties. An Israeli military official stated that Fordow had not yet been targeted, but that it remained a possibility.