The Arakan Army's Rise, Rohingya Involvement, and the Impasse of Refugee Return

In Myanmar, the military government has faced significant setbacks as rebel groups have gained ground. Rakhine state, a coastal region bordering Bangladesh, has seen the most significant losses. The Arakan Army, with a force of 45,000, has seized control of much of northern Rakhine and appears poised to take over the entire state. The junta has responded with airstrikes and attempts to mobilize former adversaries against the AA.

Rohingya militant groups have been involved in the conflict, sometimes fighting alongside junta troops or allied militias. According to a recent report, these groups have temporarily paused their turf war in Bangladesh refugee camps to focus on the battle for Rakhine. The Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic group, have a history of oppression in Myanmar. In 2016, the military targeted them in what is widely considered a genocidal campaign, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of the majority of the population to Bangladesh.

While Myanmar's National Unity Government has condemned past treatment of the Rohingya and called for their inclusion in a future democracy, the Arakan Army has been accused of massacring Rohingya civilians and seeking to drive them out of the region. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an Islamist armed group, is at the core of this issue. ARSA's attacks on Myanmar military posts in 2016 were used to justify the subsequent genocide. ARSA has become the dominant force in Cox’s Bazar, a sprawling camp on the Bangladesh border where the majority of Rohingya refugees live.

The situation for Rohingya in Bangladesh has worsened in recent years. Increased desperation in Cox’s Bazar has made recruitment easier for armed groups like ARSA. Despite longstanding opposition to the Myanmar military, ARSA forces have fought alongside the junta against the AA in multiple operations.

The fighting between Rohingya armed groups and the AA, along with the presence of Rohingya in regime-controlled militias, has had a detrimental effect on communal relations. Hate speech on social media is growing, mirroring the situation during the 2016-2018 crackdown. As a result of the fighting, approximately 200,000 Rohingya have fled Rakhine in the past year. The AA's dominance in the region will be crucial in any negotiations for refugee return. To reduce support for armed struggle among Rohingya refugees, the AA needs to demonstrate its ability to govern Rakhine State in the interests of all communities. Further conflict between Rohingya armed groups and the Arakan Army is not in the interest of the Rohingya people, Bangladesh, or the Arakan Army.