A Chain of Events Leading to Israel's Offensive and the Shifting Regional Power Dynamics

The current Israeli offensive against Iran is the culmination of a series of events that began with the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. These events have progressively weakened Tehran and, from a military perspective, strengthened Israel. The recent offensive against Iran would likely not have been possible without this preceding chain of events.

The initial phase involved the Israeli offensive in Gaza. While resulting in significant Palestinian casualties, it effectively degraded Hamas's military capabilities within weeks, diminishing its immediate threat to Israeli citizens. This had significant regional implications, as Hamas was a part of the "axis of resistance," a coalition of groups assembled by Tehran to project power and deter Israel from attacking Iran's nuclear program.

Following this, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, leading to Iran's first direct attack on Israel, which was largely ineffective. This marked a shift, as the conflict, previously fought through proxies and covert operations, became more overt.

By autumn, with Hamas weakened, Israel turned its attention to Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based group supported by Iran. Israel eliminated Hezbollah's leadership and a significant portion of its missile stockpile, and invaded its heartland in southern Lebanon with minimal resistance. This represented a major defeat for Hezbollah.

Iran responded with another ineffective air offensive, which was met with Israeli airstrikes that destroyed much of Iran's air defense system, paving the way for the wider attack. Hezbollah's weakness also meant it was unable to support the al-Assad regime in Syria, another key Iranian ally, when rebels launched an offensive. The potential fall of Assad further weakened the axis of resistance, exposed Iranian proxies in Syria, and made it easier for Israeli warplanes to reach targets in Iran.

With Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq hesitant to engage, the Houthis in Yemen remained the only active member of the axis of resistance. Their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and missile launches at Tel Aviv caused no significant strategic damage.

By early spring, Iran's decision to rely on its proxies for security appeared to be a miscalculation. This created an opportunity for Israel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began preparing a major offensive.

The targets chosen by Israeli planners may have the effect of dismantling the regime that has ruled since the 1979 Iranian revolution. The first casualties included senior officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), founded to protect the new rule of the radical clerics. Several were also veterans of the Iran-Iraq war.

The attacks also targeted key figures, including nuclear scientists and senior aides to Khamenei. While it is unlikely that Iran will revert to a pro-Israeli or pro-US stance, the power of the men who led the revolutionary regime over the decades will likely be severely weakened.