Navigating Trump's Return and the Complexities of Global Diplomacy at the G7

Keir Starmer faces a crucial international summit, potentially the most significant of his premiership. The stakes are high, and any diplomatic missteps could have serious consequences. His previous interactions with North American leaders have already caused diplomatic ripples, setting the stage for a delicate balancing act.

This weekend, Starmer joins leaders from the world's largest economies, including Donald Trump, at the G7 summit in Alberta, hosted by the recently reelected Canadian PM. Discussions will cover key issues such as US tariffs, the war in Ukraine, and the escalating situation in the Middle East. Starmer hopes to secure a trade deal with the US, while also navigating Trump's stance on Ukraine and the Aukus submarine agreement.

The summit presents a challenge in managing egos, particularly that of the former US president. Trump's presence marks his first summit since leaving office in 2020. Adding to the complexity is a past diplomatic incident involving Starmer and Trump. During a White House press conference, Starmer was asked about Trump's plans regarding Canada.

Starmer, aiming to maintain a positive relationship with Trump, downplayed the issue, stating that the two nations were the closest of allies and that Canada was not discussed. This response drew criticism, particularly in Canada, where it was seen as a failure to defend Canadian sovereignty.

The incident highlights the difficult position Starmer finds himself in when dealing with the US President. While prioritizing a trade deal, he may have inadvertently damaged relations with Canada. Despite the fanfare, the trade deal has yet to materialize, and potential tariffs on steel could further complicate matters.

The current US administration has also shown hostility towards the UK for its stance on sanctions against extremists in the Israeli government. Starmer must carefully balance his approach, especially if Trump becomes difficult. The upcoming summit echoes the chaotic 2018 G7 summit in Canada, where Trump's actions caused significant disruption.

Starmer could seek advice from former Prime Minister Theresa May, who navigated similar challenges. The 2018 summit saw Trump arrive late, sign a communique, and then withdraw his support. He also made controversial remarks and left early. The situation underscores the need for Starmer to prepare for potential disarray and expect the unexpected. Given recent criticism of his leadership style, he may want to avoid a robotic approach and avoid repeating past mistakes.