The four European members of the G7 face a complex summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, acutely aware of the potential for friction with U.S. President Donald Trump. They understand that his focus on tariffs, defense spending, and other contentious issues could lead to a volatile atmosphere, and they recognize that directly challenging him might backfire. Their primary objective is to navigate the summit without provoking a major confrontation.
The non-American members of the G7, including Canada, Japan, Italy, France, Germany, and Britain, are well-versed in Mr. Trump's disruptive tendencies at international summits. They have witnessed his past behavior, including criticism of allies' defense spending, threats to withdraw from international agreements, and avoidance of traditional closing press conferences. This experience has informed their strategic planning for the upcoming meeting.
The non-U.S. members have spent months preparing for the summit, considering various approaches. One option is to present a united front against Mr. Trump on key issues such as tariffs, China's role in the global economy, defense spending commitments, and support for Ukraine. Alternatively, they might opt for a less confrontational approach, softening their demands to avoid triggering his potential retaliation, such as the imposition of further tariffs.
The six non-U.S. members have ample reason to be cautious of Mr. Trump, given the turmoil he has inflicted on global trade. His actions, including the imposition and adjustment of tariffs on trading partners, have created uncertainty and instability. Furthermore, ongoing trade negotiations with the White House add another layer of complexity, as they are wary of jeopardizing any progress by angering Mr. Trump.
With progress on tariffs appearing unlikely, the G7 may seek to achieve consensus in other areas. Increasing military spending is almost certain to be a key topic. All G7 countries generally agree on the need for increased defense spending, particularly among the EU countries, given the potential for reduced U.S. commitment to NATO and the resulting implications for European security.
Given the anticipated difficulties in reaching agreements on tariffs and defense, the G7 may look for opportunities to achieve easier victories. One potential area of focus is a unified approach to the relationship with China, particularly concerning intellectual property, investment screening, and disapproval of Beijing's support for Moscow. Ultimately, Mr. Trump's unpredictable nature will be the defining factor at the Canadian G7 summit, as it has been at previous gatherings.
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