Direct Attacks and Nuclear Concerns Raise Fears of Wider War

The long-standing conflict between Israel and Iran has significantly influenced the Middle East for many years. For a considerable period, the two nations engaged in a low-intensity conflict, characterized by covert attacks and proxy warfare, largely avoiding a full-scale war.

The intensity of the hostilities increased following the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023. Since then, both countries have exchanged fire on each other's territories in isolated incidents, utilizing missiles and drones.

A major escalation occurred when Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian military targets and its nuclear program, also targeting scientists and military leaders. Explosions were reported in Tehran. According to Iranian state television, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was killed in the strikes. Israel declared a state of emergency.

The potential for open warfare has increased, particularly due to renewed focus on Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israel, believed to possess its own nuclear weapons, has long viewed Iran's potential to develop atomic weapons as a threat.

The relationship between Israel and Iran was once friendly, beginning in the 1950s during the rule of Iran's last monarch. However, this alliance ended abruptly with the Islamic revolution in 1979. Iran's new leaders called for the destruction of Israel, viewing it as an imperialist power. Iran has supported groups that regularly fight Israel, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi rebels.

Israel considers the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran an existential threat. Israeli officials have suggested that if Iran were to approach the capability of building nuclear weapons, Israeli forces would attack its nuclear program, as they have done in the past.

Before the recent attacks, the two countries exchanged direct blows for the first time in April 2024 when Iran launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israel. This was in response to an earlier airstrike on Iranian diplomatic buildings in Damascus, which was widely attributed to Israel.

While Iran's attack caused minimal damage and provoked a limited response from Israel, the direct fighting moved the conflict into a more dangerous phase, setting a precedent for overt, direct combat. In July of the same year, Israel assassinated Hamas’s political leader in Tehran. Another round of missile attacks and airstrikes was exchanged in October.