Labor Poised for Victory as Coalition Campaign Stumbles

Anthony Albanese is poised to potentially secure Labor's majority as the election campaign concludes. Peter Dutton has seemingly acknowledged shortcomings in the Coalition's campaign strategy.

With a surge in early voting, polls indicate Labor's advantage over the Coalition has strengthened. The final YouGov survey showed Labor leading with 52.9% in two-party preferred support, compared to the Coalition's 47.1%. This represents a 0.7% shift towards the Prime Minister since the 2022 election. Earlier in the campaign, Labor held 50.2% and the Coalition 49.8%.

A separate poll from Redbridge-Accent, published in the Daily Telegraph, mirrored the YouGov findings, showing Labor's lead extended to 53%. Both polls suggest Labor is likely to secure a second term and potentially increase its majority. YouGov's analysis projects Labor could win between 76 and 85 seats.

Mr. Dutton, speaking from his electorate, attempted to downplay the Coalition's campaign performance, which has faced internal criticism for being poorly prepared and marked by errors. These included gaffes such as not knowing the price of eggs, premature comments about living in Kirribilli, reversing work-from-home policies, misrepresenting the Indonesian president, and admitting he didn't know Donald Trump. The Coalition also struggled to promote its nuclear power policy and faced industry backlash.

Despite the poll trends, Mr. Albanese expressed nervousness, acknowledging the difficulty of winning elections. He noted that no Prime Minister has been re-elected since 2004.

While Labor leads in the polls, both major parties are expected to experience weak primary support. YouGov indicates Labor may receive 31.4% of first preference votes, with the Coalition at 31.1%. The Greens are estimated to capture 12.6% of the vote, while One Nation has increased its support.

The low primary support suggests preference flows will be crucial in determining the final results, particularly in outer-urban electorates. YouGov's projections suggest Labor will win 84 seats, the Coalition 47, and the Greens three. Independents would hold 14 seats, and "others" would hold the remaining two. YouGov believes all sitting independents will retain their seats, and the Coalition will lose several electorates. The Coalition is expected to regain the seat of Aston from Labor. The three Queensland seats held by the Greens are predicted to be closely contested.